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Sunday, May 10, 2026
Democrats are expanding the Senate map. Can they keep it up?
Democrats are expanding the Senate map. Can they keep it up?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/5/10/800035012/elections/senate-2026-democrats-republicans-map-expanding/
Democrats are expanding the Senate map. Can they keep it up?
It’s been over a month since we first checked in on the 2026 battle for the Senate. Democrats face an incredibly hostile map and, in a normal year, would be all but guaranteed to remain in the minority. But this isn’t a normal year, and Democrats have a slim but growing chance to win back the majority on a map that runs through Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas.
That’s how badly President Donald Trump and his party have f’d things up.
This month, we’re upgrading two states:
- Texas moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
- Iowa enters the list at No. 8, moving from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Republicans are still favored to hold the Senate at this point, but the trend lines are moving in Democrats’ direction, and there are still six months to go.
1. North Carolina (R-open, Lean D)
Democratic nominee Roy Cooper, a former governor, has won all six statewide races he’s run in, and he has yet to trail in a single poll of his Senate race. All three surveys released since our previous update show Cooper comfortably ahead, including one that has him up 50% to Republican nominee Mike Whatley’s 41%. Not one poll has shown Whatley above 44%.
There’s still plenty of race left, but this one is itching to be upgraded to “Likely Democratic.”
2. Maine (R-incumbent, Lean D)
The big news out of Maine this past month was Democratic Gov. Janet Mills ending her primary campaign in anticipation of a blowout loss to insurgent Democrat Graham Platner.
This is the only GOP-held Senate seat this year in a state Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, underscoring just how brutal the map is for Democrats. But Republican Sen. Susan Collins has long been a political survivor in a state that often ignores traditional partisan rules.
Over the past several months, polling has shown Platner leading Collins by 4 to 9 percentage points. He has a checkered past, to say the least, but attempts to spotlight it have seemed to make him more popular. Maybe Collins will be more effective than Mills at that task, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Trump has rewritten the rules of political acceptability, and Platner appears to be benefiting from it.
3. Georgia (D-incumbent, Lean D)
Georgia remains a light-red state, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is aiming to win his second Senate race this November.
Polling for the general election has been sparse, but an Echelon Insights/NetChoice survey from early April had Ossoff leading likely Republican nominee Mike Collins by 7 points and, importantly, sitting above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
4. Michigan (D-open, Lean D)
With primaries not until August, pollsters seem largely uninterested in testing the field. The two most recent polls of the general election, both conducted in January, show either party with an edge depending on which survey you look at.
The Democratic primary features Rep. Haley Stevens, progressive Abdul El-Sayed, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. El-Sayed performed weakest in those early polls. On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers is back for another run after losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes in 2024.
5. Alaska (R-incumbent, Toss-up)
My favorite Senate race of the cycle features former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola taking on incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan.
As I noted a month ago, Alaska may regularly vote Republican at the presidential level, but its politics are far more collaborative than modern MAGA politics. The state legislature is currently controlled by a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans that has sidelined MAGA lawmakers.
There’s one pollster that matters here: Ivan Moore’s Alaska Survey Research. Its March poll had Peltola ahead by 5 points in the final round of ranked-choice voting, and its April poll showed her up by about 7 points.
Sullivan’s biggest problem is that Alaska voters simply don’t like him very much. The March poll showed his approval rating 10 points underwater, while Peltola’s was +8 points, though Republicans will spend heavily trying to chip away at Peltola’s numbers.
Peltola may also benefit from the gubernatorial candidacy of former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich, brother of former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich and uncle of Republican Rep. Nick Begich, who defeated Peltola in 2024.
The most recent gubernatorial poll showed Tom Begich leading by 8 points in the final round of voting. Meanwhile, Nick Begich is cruising toward reelection in the state’s lone House seat.
So, we have a Republican Begich and a Democratic Begich, both drifting toward statewide victory, while the Democrat whom the Republican Begich beat is well positioned in her effort to oust an incumbent Republican, in a state that Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Make sense?
You see why I love this so much?
6. Texas (R-incumbent, Lean R)
Corrupt state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remain locked in a Republican primary battle, while Democratic nominee James Talarico gets a race-rating upgrade and jumps ahead of Ohio on this list.
The two most recent general-election polls, both from April, show Talarico leading in the general election, no matter whom he faces. Slingshot Strategies found him ahead by 5 points against Paxton and by 3 points against Cornyn. YouGov had Talarico leading by 8 points against Paxton and by 7 points against Cornyn.
Still, those numbers look better than they probably are. In both polls, Talarico’s support sits between 40% and 46%, and undecided voters tend to break toward their state’s partisan lean. Texas Democrats already know who they’re voting for, while the undecided vote probably includes mostly conservative-leaning voters unhappy with their choices, but when Election Day arrives, they are still more likely to come home to the GOP than defect.
In other words, Talarico still has real work to do to get over 50%.
Could pollsters be missing angry Latino and younger voters? Possibly. Can we assume that? Absolutely not.
The fact that this race is even competitive is remarkable, but Republicans remain favored—though less so if Paxton wins the nomination in the May 26 GOP primary runoff.
7. Ohio (R-incumbent, Lean R)
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is probably the only Democrat capable of making this race competitive.
So far, he trails narrowly, while appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted has been polling at 50% or above in the most recent surveys.
8. Iowa (R-incumbent, Likely R)
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring since she couldn’t politically recover from telling a town-hall attendee worried about Medicaid cuts that “we all are going to die.”
In the previous update, I wrote that “there’s a plausible scenario where Iowa joins this list as well.” But I didn’t expect it to happen this quickly.
A new Echelon Insights/NetChoice poll has Democratic state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek narrowly leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in hypothetical general-election matchups. The primary is June 2.
The problem for Democrats is that both Wahls and Turek are sitting at just 46% in a red state, meaning undecided voters are likely to shift toward the Republican nominee. But tariffs and mass deportations have hit Iowa hard, and voters may decide to punish Trump’s party for that.
Iowa should not be on this map. But it is.
9. Nebraska (R-incumbent, Likely R)
Dan Osborn, the independent former union leader who nearly stunned Nebraska politics in 2024, is back for another Senate run. Last cycle, he came within 7 points of defeating Republican Sen. Deb Fischer—53.2% to 46.5%—even as Trump carried the state by more than 20 points. That’s what can happen when voters in a deep-red state are offered an alternative that doesn’t come with a “D” attached to it.
This time, Osborn faces incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts, heir to the TD Ameritrade fortune and about as perfect a symbol of the country’s ruling oligarchy as Democrats could ask for. In a political environment dominated by economic anxiety, tariffs, deportations, and cuts that are hammering rural Nebraska, Ricketts is the perfect villain.
There hasn’t been much public polling, and what little exists comes from the Osborn campaign, so take it with the appropriate grain of salt. But the race appears competitive.
The challenge for Osborn remains the same as it was in 2024: Undecided voters in Nebraska tend to drift Republican once it comes time to cast a ballot. But if there’s anyone capable of overcoming that gravitational pull, it’s Osborn—especially in this political climate.
Other states to watch
Republicans are trying to make New Hampshire competitive, and they could if former Sen. John Sununu wins the GOP primary, as is expected. The likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Chris Pappas, led Sununu by 7 points in the latest University of New Hampshire poll, though other surveys have shown a much tighter race. I suspect this contest joins the list within the next month or two.
And did someone say Kansas? No one did, but I’m saying it.
Education remains one of the strongest predictors of partisan alignment. Of the 20 states with the highest percentage of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, only two voted for Trump in 2024: Utah and Kansas. Utah politics are heavily shaped by the Mormon church. But Kansas should be bluer than it is, and it does have a Democratic governor in Laura Kelly.
I’m not saying this is the year Kansas flips at the Senate level. A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race there since 1912. But in this environment? Weird things may happen.
(Incidentally, among the 20 states with the lowest percentage of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, only one voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024: New Mexico.)
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Saturday, May 9, 2026
the 40 days of trumpmas - a surreal serial poem
the 40 days of trumpmas - a surreal serial poem
Remember, remember! The fifth of trumpvember
the 40 days of trumpmas - a serial poem
for 40 days the trumpeter reigns,
his lies and hate on whom he disdains,
but election day will come so soon,
we'll no longer hear the orange baboon;
in 39 days full of world wide problems.
we could elect him to get rid of the muslims,
but as he'll rant on trivialities of his presidential life,
what could be worse? - you could be his wife;
in 38 days just what will you do?
the donald has said he likes lgbtq,
but as he bullies his women and all his men too,
if youre questioning, what stops him from bullying you?
in just 37 days, some people are saying,
(or pleading or hoping or some even praying)
the duke of prunes will dye his forelock purple my friend,
and thus make america grape again,
our days are down to just 36,
before our problems the don will fix,
he will on day one do what hes said - true,
he'll wall out our enemies - and fat women too!
on the 35th day of trumpmas
yes just seven weeks remain!
will the polls and tallies deliver us
donald with his golden mane?
34 days and the vice-pipers have piped,
though pence didnt say why donalds suit shouldnt be striped,
he wouldnt defend his master's string pulling,
to make america great? - who do they think they're fooling?
just 33 days till the macho tornado,
unless its blown away by hurricane machado,
with women and voters he has so much to loose.
keep your mouth shut donald (unless youre changing your shoes)
32 days and we’ve been hit by the big blowhard,
donald spoke here in fla (oh, we had a hurricane too)
this administration gives us playing the race card, a weak economy, and unemployment
but if you want a job you could be donald’s campaign manager (unless youre a jew)
31 days, just a month, remains;
will the donald say hes sorry, and his baser impulses restrain?
or keep blaming bill clinton for our moral demise;
when trump speaks to us, our NO votes must be our replies!
election comes this time (in 30 days) each 4 years,
time for praise and tears and fears;
as polls will open in many states,
vote early, please dont vote late!
down to 29, just a leap february,
and theres still the donald quite
contrary;
donald donald, how does your garden grow?
quoth the master debater, "with pretty maids groped in a row"
just 28 days - later or soon,
and the zombies will rise, led by the big goon;
unless everyone gets a reality inoculation,
i might have to move to canada for a well deserved vacation;
now just 27, less than 4 weeks,
no time for you to say 'yikes!' or 'eeeks!'
obama wants to go to mars and colonize it for man,
lets send trump tomorrow! and colonize it for orangutan!
26 days are all that remain,
will our democracy and economy go down the drain?
if we all keep listening to the blustering oaf,
will he give jobs and prosperity? - or just half a loaf
25 days - will more women speak?,
of the antics of donald who the presidency seeks,
dating 14 year old girls or groping their mothers,
how did the gop pick him over the others?,
24 days - were down to two dozen,
the next woman who speaks just might be your cousin,
or mother or sister, aunt, niece, even daughter,
describing the circumstance in which donald caught her,
23 days left and trump doesnt yet have as many accusers,
as cosby, but he assures us that they are all really losers,
sent by bankers or hillary with secret agendas,
to disrupt our election of him - our defender!,
22 days and we know charity begins at home,
but donalds attention is so prone to roam,
his gift that disappeared to 911 survivors from his foundation?,
oops! maybe donald spent it on a vacation,
21 days and trump says the election may be rig-ly,
if hes not the winner and his total's not big-ly,
tremendously higher than hillary gets,
he warns his supporters may all lose their wits,
20 days left and while george zimmerman still walks free,
the man who shot at HIM got 20 years - while trayvon got eternity,
trump wants us to support our cops and maintain law and order,
he'll put all the inner city dwellers in jail, and send the immigrant criminals far across the border,
19 days left till we all go to pretend,
to elect someone to lead us, as if on it our lives depend,
but wise man, donald trump, already really knows,
who we really voted for - a wolf in president's clothes?,
18 days and we bad hombres demand a rebate,
on the ill feelings left since the comments of one candidate,
the debaters have met in their final grudge match,
but only donald can say from whose hands victory will be snatched,
17 days and our government is corrupt with quid pro quo,
did you take latin at wharton? is that how you know?,
donald wants us to fire at them all - the bureaucrats lined up in rows,
and believe me, corruption is a subject. that donald really knows,
16 days - lets set term limits on all our office holders,
and put all our women in binders - or maybe in folders,
donalds endless complaints are becoming a sour whine,
have a little cheese with that, from wisconsin, where
hillary's doing fine,
15 days and on stocking covered thighs did linger,
two miniature hands with two thumbs and eight tiny fingers,
they belonged to the donald who believed that he owned,
any thing that he wanted - or anyone he got alone,
14 days yes only two weeks,
till the duke of orange assends to the throne he seeks?,
to rule all americans, the strong and the weak?,
and dominate the globe with power that's peak?,
the 13th day to go - does that seem unlucky?,
not for donald whos lately been appearing quite plucky,
claiming media, polls, and parties are against him,
and rallying his multitudes with wit waxing dim,
on the 12th day of trumpmas donald awoke with a jerk,
promptly fired his latest campaign manager (who considered that a perk),
if youre "AAAfroAAAmurikan" and unemployed i can put you to work,
barked donald the businessman from behind his sly smirk,
it's the 11th and engineer casey trump is in the caboose,
i hear some of you saying oh no! what's the use,
our campaign will probably just go off the tracks,
but donald says its ok - cause he's got "the blacks",
just ten days left yes only one-zero,
til donald is hoping that he'll be your hero,
as new hillary emails come under investigation,
donald hopes to rename camp david to camp donald for
his vacations,
like a cat has nine lives we're left with only 9 days,
till we're subject to donald? and his old wicked ways,
on foreign affairs he says he'll save us from isis,
but his domestic affairs are misogyny and crisis,
our days are numbered - yes only eight,
till once again we make america great,
by getting rid of candidates who have nothing to add,
goodbye donald you wont make america sad,
just one week to go - its day minus seven,
till america's lifted above - to trumpty dump heaven?,
where for rich folks like donald opportunity abounds,
and we keep the working poor with a wall that surrounds,
how the time it does fly its already day 6,
till americans problems the donald will fix,
his solutions begin on trumpday number one,
dont you like them? they'll come at the barrel of a gun,
Five days to go, baby, One in five,
No one here gets out alive, now,
david dukes not opposed to all jews,
he backs trump - who are you going to choose?,
only 4 days left till the armaged-don,
he'll seize power by the horns once he has won,
and donnie will be what he longs for - a winner,
using the FBI to wreak havoc on hillary the sinner,
only three left, just a triad of days,
and the donald his supporters continues to amaze,
with hoopla and folderoll made up in his head,
his winning temperament will leave us all dead,
just a pair of days - 2 - till trump paradise,
since these words you're reading please heed my advice,
the creatures that surround us are beginning to bite,
'blacks for trump' fear the Illuminati so lets turn out their light,
just a single day left till our thanksgiving,
deliver us from donald and preserve the living,
forget sanity and disgard your misgivings,
but pray hard to your gods that they'll be forgiving,
since we've got the nukes why can't we use'em?,
on the road to 2016 why couldn't we lose HIM?,
and trumpmas now has finally come,
the tallies will count up to a winning sum,
unless the earth is struck soon by a cataclysmic comet,
to elect a candidate who just makes you want to vomit?,
we wish you a merry trumpmas at this time each 4 years,
if you have'nt voted you've lost the chance to mitigate your fears,
cause donald duck is ready to lead, forget your crocodile tears,
so you'd better get the vaseline and lubricate your rears!
stay informed 2
stay informed 2
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Auld Lang Syne (Live at the Fillmore East, NY - 12/31/69 - 2nd Set)
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