Democrats on Saturday night not only flipped a state Senate seat in Texas that President Donald Trump had won in 2024 by 17 percentage points, but they won the special runoff election by a staggering 14 points—a massive victory that has Republicans even more panicked about November’s midterm elections.
The 32-point swing (after rounding) is one of the biggest special election performances Democrats have had since Trump’s 2024 victory, and it’s the latest blowback to Trump's mishandling of the economy and his deadly immigration crackdown, among other chaos he’s unleashed.
The Texas win is not only important for how large it was, but also for how it happened.
Republicans tried to write off the loss as an aberration, saying it happened merely because it was a low-turnout special election during a cold streak in Texas.
“The success of a rain dance has a lot to do with timing. And what happened is there was a huge snowstorm—ice storm, really—that hit north Texas and central Texas,” Rep. Pete Sessions, a Texas Republican, told CNN on Monday morning, trying to explain away the loss. “Special elections are special, and what happened is there was, as I understand it, one Democrat and two Republicans that were running against each other, and it was a battle between the two Republicans and a group of people simply decided they were not going to come participate.”
But Sessions' read of the election is totally wrong.
Turnout wasn't low like other special elections. Nearly 95,000 people voted, with 95% of the estimated vote reporting as of Monday morning.
And a Texas-based pollster did an analysis of the turnout and found that the Democrat who won—veteran and machinist Taylor Rehmet—pulled off the victory because Republican voters crossed party lines to vote Democratic. That's a stunning outcome in the polarized political times in which we live.
"Republicans did not lose the TX SD-9 runoff because of low GOP turnout: they lost because almost all of the independents and some of the Republicans voted Dem," Ross Hunt, the Dallas-based pollster, wrote in a post on X. "Of those who voted in the TX SD-9 runoff, 50%+ were GOP primary voters or at GOP HH [householded]; only 35% were Dems or at Dem HH."
Even worse for Republicans is that their typical playbook of nationalizing a race to scare Republicans into voting didn't work here.
Republicans outspent Democrats by well over $2 million dollars in the race. And Trump sent multiple Truth Social posts imploring Republicans to vote for the now vanquished Republican nominee, right-winger Leigh Wambsganss.
“Leigh Wambsganss, a Republican running for the State Senate in the suburbs of Fort Worth, Texas, will be a GREAT Candidate and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!” Trump wrote on Friday.
On the day of the runoff, Trump sent this flop-sweat-soaked post:
I am asking all America First Patriots in Texas’ 9th State Senate District to please make a plan to GET OUT AND VOTE on Election Day, Saturday, January 31st, for a phenomenal Candidate, Leigh Wambsganss. She is a highly successful Entrepreneur, and an incredible supporter of our Movement to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. My very good friend, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, needs a strong conservative Republican in SD-9 to KEEP TEXAS RED! The Radical Left Democrats are spending a fortune to beat a true MAGA Warrior, Leigh Wambsganss. You can win this Election for Leigh, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. PLEASE MAKE A PLAN TO GET OUT AND VOTE FOR LEIGH WAMBSGANSS IN THE JANUARY 31ST SPECIAL RUNOFF ELECTION! Find your closest Polling Location here. Leigh will NEVER let Texas, or the USA, down!
Of course, on Sunday, Trump said he “had nothing to do with” Wambsganss’s loss.
In fact, data suggests the GOP candidate did worse on Election Day than in the early-voting period—a sign Trump's endorsement likely didn’t help (and may have even hurt) the Republican nominee.
If even Trump can't pull his party over the finish line in a seat he won by double-digit margins, then Republicans are in deep trouble this fall.
What should also shake Republicans to their core is that Hispanic voters—who had swung hard toward Trump in 2024—swung hard toward the Democratic candidate.
Given that Texas Republicans' corrupt redraw of their congressional map hinges upon Hispanic voters remaining in the GOP's camp, their gerrymander could come up short of its expected five-seat gain for Republicans, according to elections-handicapping outlet Inside Elections.
Nevertheless, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—who called a special session of his state’s legislature to further gerrymander its own U.S. House map for Republicans—may be having second thoughts now.
“Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election. That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed,” DeSantis wrote in a post on X. “Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”
Democrats, for their part, made this point as they celebrated their win in Texas.
“Dear @GovRonDeSantis: I dare you to do redistricting in FL. The only way to draw more lean GOP seats is to make existing incumbent GOP congressional districts weaker,” Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) wrote in a post on X. “Democrat Taylor Rehmet just flipped a ruby red state district in TX in a 30+ point shift. See you in November.”
See you in November, indeed.
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