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Scoreboard on every street: Gas heads for $4 per gallon due to Iran war

Dave Lawler

Illustration of a center hung scoreboard showing gas prices instead of game scores. — Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Most Americans will likely soon be paying over $4 per gallon as the war in Iran drives one of the sharpest gas price surges in recent history.

The big picture: For many Americans, the most visible barometer of how the Iran war is going may be the price at the gas station down the street.

Breaking it down: The White House insists prices will fall rapidly once Trump's military objectives in Iran are achieved.

"President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions. Ultimately, once the Iranian regime is neutralized, oil and gas prices will drop rapidly again, potentially even lower than before the strikes" began, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
But analysts say it could take weeks to months for prices to ease, even after the war begins to wind down. That could keep gas prices elevated into the summer.
Trump has largely dismissed the price spikes, though Vice President Vance acknowledged on Wednesday that there could be a "rough road ahead of us for the next few weeks."
If the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for an extended period of time, or if Iran conducts further retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy facilities, the costs could be steeper and longer-lasting.

Between the lines: The White House says Trump wants to decimate Iran's navy, proxy funding and nuclear and missile programs before moving to end the war.

It may be difficult to convince swing voters it's worth swallowing budget-busting price increases to achieve those goals.
Iran currently has a stranglehold on the most important waterway for the global oil trade, complicating any attempt by Trump to end the conflict and get prices back to normal.
In the meantime, he is taking a variety of steps, like tapping strategic reserves and suspending the Jones Act, to try to limit the pain.

Reality check: Prices were relatively low — below $3 on average — when the war began, so they're still below historic highs despite a more than 25% increase since the war began.

Prices spiked to around $5 per gallon at the start of the war in Ukraine, for example.
But gas prices are one of the most visible and keenly felt forms of inflation, and have a disproportionate impact on lower-income households.

By the numbers: Majorities of Americans think gas prices are already too high (80%), that they're likely to increase in the next few months (67%), and that Trump is to blame for the increases (60%), according to a Yahoo/YouGov poll.

Meanwhile, 56% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran, vs. 36% who approve, according to a separate Economist/YouGov poll.
The vast majority of Republicans continue to support the war, though, and Trump's overall approval rating appears stable.
Republicans up for election in November are hoping the price surge is over and forgotten by then.

The bottom line: Rising gas prices could make it harder for President Trump to convince Americans it's a fight worth having.