There’s One Big Problem With Trump’s Victory Lap on the Drop in Crime
https://newrepublic.com/article/212236/trump-drop-crime-murders-democrats-cities
The steep decline in murders across the country is mainly occurring in blue cities—and began well before he returned to the White House.
There’s One Big Problem With Trump’s Victory Lap on the Drop in Crime
The steep decline in murders across the country is mainly occurring in blue cities—and began well before he returned to the White House.

Putting aside the racism and xenophobia in that statement, the key word is “reversing.” The administration has been selling hard the idea that Trump, who ran in part on a law-and-order platform, has stepped in and calmed the chaos of our cities, restoring peace to streets made unsafe by naïve Democrats who care more about protecting undocumented immigrants than American citizens. Last week, Trump crowed on Truth Social, “D.C., Memphis, New Orleans, all down to record lows, and quickly!”
He and his acolytes not only are taking credit for the drop in crime, but using it to excuse or hand-wave away a host of transgressions, from the National Guard troops that still occupy the streets of D.C. to ICE raids that continue to break up families and trample on human rights. They even use it to rebut critiques that have no relation to public safety.
In a recent appearance on ABC’s The View, Vice President JD Vance responded to questions about the administration’s whitewashing of U.S. history and its efforts to dilute minority voting power by arguing that it was actually doing more for minorities because crime in D.C., whose population is around 42 percent Black, is down. And FBI Director Kash Patel, during a Senate hearing last month, responded to a question about his indecorous behavior at the recent Winter Olympics—where he chugged a beer with the U.S. men’s hockey team—by holding up a sheet of arrest and crime stats, stating that the murder rate had fallen around 20 percent last year. (The following day, he was busted by MS NOW for inflating those arrest numbers.)
But guess who’s actually responsible for the drop in violent crime? Democrats, by and large—and it predates the Trump administration.
Last September, Trump woke up and fired off the following message on Truth Social: “CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD!” That’s not true, but no matter. Trump was going to send in the National Guard to clean things up. “We’re going in,” he told the press later that day. “This isn’t a political thing. I have an obligation. When 20 people are killed over the last two and a half weeks, and 75 are shot with bullets, there’s no place in the world, including—you can go to Afghanistan, you can go to places that you would think of—they don’t even come close to this. Chicago is a hellhole right now. Baltimore is a hellhole right now.”
Sure enough, a month later, he sent guardsmen into Chicago and kept them there for three months before the Supreme Court intervened.
I’m not going to argue that Chicago hasn’t had a crime problem, but the data is very clear: The city has been getting dramatically safer. After hitting a quarter-century peak of 804 murders in 2021, the number fell to 719 in 2022, 623 in 2023, 587 in 2024, and 416 last year. The city not only halved its murder rate in four years, but hit its lowest number since 1965. This was likely achieved in part through Mayor Brandon Johnson’s restructuring of the Chicago Police’s detective bureau, his appointment of an effective superintendent in Larry Snelling, and the increased spending and attention given to mental health care and crime prevention programs.
Baltimore witnessed an even more remarkable drop, going from 334 murders in 2022 to 262 in 2023, 202 in 2024, and finally 133 in 2025—a 60 percent decline in just three years. Mayor Brandon Scott, who took office in late 2020, has focused on getting guns off the street and supporting community programs, which target the young people most prone to join gangs and commit violence, providing them with mentors and resources to prevent crimes from ever happening.
As for Washington, D.C., which Trump claims to have singlehandedly made safe by deploying the National Guard, the capital did see a 32 percent reduction in homicides from 2024 to 2025. But this followed from the previous year, when the city hit a 30-year low in violent crime, including a 32 percent decline in murders from 2023 to 2024, long before Trump’s troops arrived. Like Chicago and Baltimore, D.C.’s mayor over this period, Muriel Bowser, was a Democrat.
These drops are actually part of a larger national trend. Homicides have been falling across the nation since Covid—that is, since well before Trump’s second administration. The greatest decreases have been in cities, and 34 of America’s 40 largest cities are run by “Radical Left Democrats,” as Trump would put it. While the Covid pandemic may have fueled an aberrantly high rate, there’s also no doubt that crime fell drastically under President Joe Biden, and experts, such as Ben Struhl of the University of Pennsylvania’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab, credit Biden-era community-based violence intervention programs, or CVI programs, for making a major difference. “The evidence is strong,” he told The New York Times, “for citywide strategies that contain these programs.” These include community funding programs established in Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.
Over $325 billion of ARPA’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package went directly to state, local, and tribal governments. The Biden administration encouraged grant recipients to use some of these funds on public safety, and these governments responded by injecting over $10 billion toward that purpose—not just for enforcement efforts, but for proven CVI programs.
Many cities put this to great effect. The most powerful example may be Boston, which is experiencing its lowest crime rate in nearly seven decades under Democratic Mayor Michelle Wu. Police Commissioner Michael Cox largely credited the city’s CVI tactics, declaring, “The Boston Police Department continues to rely on the community as our most valued partner in public safety in the city.” That effort has included over 4,000 officer-attended community events and new programs to empower young people and stop crime before it happens.
Adding to ARPA’s impact, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act not only increased funding for prevention programs, but expanded access to mental health facilities, strengthened background checks for gun purchases, and closed the “dating loophole” that allowed perpetrators of domestic violence to get guns.
This is all libtard propaganda, though, if you ask the White House. When The Hill’s Sarah Fortinsky dared in February to suggest that Biden’s legislation helped reduce murders, deputy press secretary Abigail Jackson called the claim “absurd,” insisting that “crime is dropping because of President Trump’s law-and-order policies. Any suggestion otherwise is simply not based in reality.”
The irony is surely lost on her that the most lawless administration in American history, led by the most criminal U.S. president ever, is trying to take credit for a crime drop that it’s had little or nothing to do with. But that is the reality. The “carnage and chaos” around this country is being largely caused by Trump and his goons, and there is no bigger “hellhole” in America right now than that white neoclassical building at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue—the one with the literal hole right next to it.




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