Friday, July 10, 2026

A hidden sign that Republicans know they’re cooked this year

A hidden sign that Republicans know they’re cooked this year

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/7/9/800067445/news/democratic-republican-internal-polls-lopsided/ 

A hidden sign that Republicans know they’re cooked this year

by Emily Singer
Staff
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Campaign signs for Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas, and Democratic candidate for congress Bobby Pulido are posted in Edinburg, Texas, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Campaign signs for Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of Texas and her Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido stand in Edinburg, Texas, in February.AP

Political handicappers and pundits alike disagree on the accuracy of internal campaign polls, with data showing they are often biased in favor of the candidate they’re affiliated with.

However, history has shown that while the topline numbers in the surveys may not predict the exact outcome of a race, the amount of internal campaign polls released can be predictive of how that party will do in an upcoming election. In other words, campaigns that release more internal polls often do well in that next election, while campaigns that do not release many often do poorly.

And in 2026, it’s Democrats who are releasing more internal polls than Republicans—the latest sign that November is building up to be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Over the past week, Democratic candidates or groups affiliated with them released at least six internal polls of November’s general election, according to The New York Times’ aggregator. Republicans, meanwhile, released just one.

The Democratic-affiliated polls covered such toss-up races as New York’s 17th District, Pennsylvania’s 7th District, and Wisconsin’s 3rd District. In all three, Democratic candidates led their Republican rivals.

Another Democratic poll came from Texas’ 15th District, a race the Cook Political Report labels as “Likely Republican.” However, the poll found Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz by 2 points in a seat that the GOP redrew to make it more Republican leaning. 

U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) holds a press conference to addresses voter suppression at the Hidalgo County Courthouse on Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, in Edinburg, Texas. (Joel Martinez/The Monitor via AP)
Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, shown in 2020.AP

According to the Times’ aggregator, the sole Republican-affiliated internal poll released in the past week was for Texas’ 34th District. That poll showed the GOP nominee up just 3 points on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, which isn’t great for Republicans, given that their party just redrew the state’s congressional map to make the seat redder. President Donald Trump won the district by 10 points under its new lines, according to The Downballot.

The midterm elections may still be just shy of four months away, but if Republicans had polling showing them ahead, they’d likely release it to try to stop the rapidly cementing conventional wisdom that the midterms will be a disaster for the GOP. And they are not doing that.

Ultimately, at a nearly identical point in the 2018 midterm cycle, CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten pointed out how Democrats were releasing more internal polls than Republicans, writing at that time that “left-wing groups [put] out 93% of the partisan polls collected by FiveThirtyEight compared to only 7% by right-wing groups.”

Enten went on to say that was a sign Democrats were likely to perform well that fall, writing that based on historical trends, “The more internal polls put out by left-wing groups relative to right-wing groups, the better Democrats tend to do in House elections.”

That proved to be true a few months later, when Democrats rode a massive wave in the 2018 midterms, gaining 40 House seats on net as well as the chamber’s majority for the first time in nearly a decade.

A similar internal polling trend seems to be playing out now.

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All comments are subject to our Community Guidelines. The views expressed in comments are those of the individual authors and don't necessarily reflect the views of Daily Kos.

All Comments

  1. Comment by Patientman.

    I think this is the worst bunch of Republicans ever seen by the citizens of this country. They have passed legislation that is devastating to the public's economic well-being. They have ignored the criminality and cruelty coming out of the executive branch. The list is extensive, hideous, and does not stop one moment to consider the human cost. Polls become useless because numbers bore the living crap out of people. We want to hear stories that give us something of substance. How are the Democrats, independents, and never Trumper republicans going to go forward without MAGA Republicans?

    Runners use their heart rate to keep a pace. They really don't need a heart rate monitor or a watch. They instinctively feel their heart rate and breathing. They don't stop in the middle and request the information from anybody. We are in a race, and carrying a massive responsibility to change the direction of an entire country. That is how you prognosticate an election.

    Put your shoulders and back into it and row the boat until the pain burns, then work through it. There is plenty of time to analyze the results after you win. The prize of human dignity is all that matters.

  2. Comment by necturus.

    There is no way this regime lets Democrats win control of Congress. I don't know what they'll do, but my heart tells me they'll find some way to cheat, as Republicans always do.

    • Reply by WarrenPease.

      LIE*CHEAT*STEAL is their whole campaign strategy, since they have no popular policies to promote and run on that would appeal to most voters…scare tactics against Dem candidates might be productive if the monied interests can flood the media with negative ads (usually lacking facts and honest info)!!

  3. Comment by Things Come Undone.

    "but if Republicans had polling showing them ahead, they’d likely release it to try to stop the rapidly cementing conventional wisdom that the midterms will be a disaster for the GOP. And they are not doing that."

    Well thats what the 250th fair and 4th of July was suppose to do get a big crowd for something that was suppose to be non political turn it political then claim the GOP and Trump have support.

    Trump knew he needed a crowd a big, huge crowd to counter the images of the crowd at the Supreme Leader of Iran's funeral. He had to show Iran he had support for the war and politically could wait out Iran.

    But Trump went too political scared off the the entertainment who were suppose to draw him a crowd.

    In Iran the crowd was more used to the heat and from the pictures I think they had mist machines to cool the outdoor crowd.

    Trump however went cheap probably to collect grift no mist machines, no cooling stations with AC, ridiculous rules about not letting the crowd bring in drinks to cool off.

    Climate Change heat and Trump's cheapness combined with a lack of first class entertainment to wreck Trump's parties.

    Also the crowd was meant to show Trump was popular ahead of the E Jean Carroll verdict which was expected.

    I think Trump attacked Iran to get that story off the front page.

    r

  4. Comment by boborain.

    All this positivity makes me quite nervous. Get out and vote, get your friends to vote. Don't listen to the noise.

  5. Comment by ShoveABirdUpIt.

    Wow Monica, nice signs.

    • Reply by ktoz.

      Her advisors nixed the pole dancing one.

  6. Comment by bpollen.

    WI has a girl raised on a dairy farm running against Drunky Van Orden. THAT'S Wisconsin all over.

  7. Comment by Liberal Thinking.

    The sign their goose is cooked is when the skin is golden and looks tough.

  8. Comment by azureblue.

    No, the sign is when their lies, get absolutely ridiculous,

    • Reply by jakebob.

      "What about" when the campaign signs, like those at top, avoid listing the candidates' party affiliation?

  9. Comment by Whatsnuts.

    I don't want to hear anything about a "bluewave" or anything else. I've been hearing it for years and it just makes people feel like they don't need to vote.

    • Reply by JimBobInMS.

      I hear you, but if we have a real chance of winning, then we need to stay in the fight. I believe that if we think we have the chance to win, we will be more motivated to participate and win. If we think we can't win, then we won't. Is the level in our glasses goin' up or down? Mine is rising.

    • Reply by SeanTea.

      While I agree that we need to stay in the fight, people as a whole are going to go with the path of least resistance.

      If the messaging is "vote blue in November to lower gas and grocery prices," that gives people a very clear cause (voting) and effect (lower prices).

      If the messaging is "a blue wave is coming," then people who would vote blue are likely to treat it as inevitable and stay home on voting day, as Whatsnuts is saying.

    • Reply by Whatsnuts.

      It's a shame we have to beg so many so-called "patriotic" Americans to get out and vote. I vote in every election. Have for decades. Wild horses can't stop me from voting, in, every, election. The number one way I fulfil my duty as a citizen is to simple vote. In every election. Not just my right, but my duty. We need to instill a purpose with Dem. voters. That takes strategy and messageing.

    • Reply by WreckedAngles.

      re: f the messaging is "vote blue in November to lower gas and grocery prices," that gives people a very clear cause (voting) and effect (lower prices).

      I REALLY like Roy Cooper's messaging: Make stuff cost less.

      Simple, and to the point.

    • Reply by jakebob.

      rant/ Sadly, prices will never go down without the dread DEFLATION. The best we can hope for is to slow down the rate of inflation, and [here's the fun part] raise incomes to a level that makes stuff affordable.

      Fiat currencies lose value over time, it's just their nature. The process is exacerbated by hoarding of currency and the frenzied seeking of "alpha", a rate of return that outpaces inflation! A sane government would tax hoarders (wealth tax) in proportion to the pernicious effects excessive hoarding has on the overall economy. HINT: If it puts people out of work or pollutes their neighborhoods with noise and waste products, it's pernicious.

      A compassionate government would use the proceeds of such tax to better the lives of it citizens who have been left behind, displaced, poisoned, or otherwise victimized by "progress". /rant

    • Reply by jakebob.

      Vote like your life depends on it!

    • Reply by Whatsnuts.

      I have been, for decades.

    • Reply by Whatsnuts.

      Every time we have managed to raise income to a level that makes stuff affordable, corporations just raise their prices and we end up back at square one. I have watched it happen for decades. Freedom should not mean some people get more than they need at the expense of everyone else.

    • Reply by Kaffekup.

      Nor do I. We've been hearing "blue tsunami" for years. What we get is 52-48% elections, in either direction.

      The republicans, with Fox's help, just mindlessly vote for any one with an R behind their names.

  10. Comment by A Noah Count.

    IF the Democrats win, at the very least, the House, unlike their win in '18, they damned well deliver for the people who put them there, rather than thinking "we've got this in the bag, we'd better not do anything that might piss off the big money donors." If they do that, the Republicans will quite likely just win back the House in '28.

    • Reply by BlueStar99.

      Same could be said for 1993, 2009 and 2021.

    • Reply by A Noah Count.

      Yeah, disgusting, isn't it?

  11. Comment by Robpos.

    I dunno know….

    I keep hearing that the Republicans are cooked, but nothing changes…

    At least for the last 40 years, or so.

    I could be wrong… but we don’t need a false hope.

    • Reply by Leftleaner.

      If the Ds win the House and the Senate without a 2/3 majority in the Senate (which I think is actually not possible), they can do hearings, they can make noise, but they can’t pass anything that will withstand a veto. They can prevent legislation but not much more. So I don’t expect huge changes.

    • Reply by Robpos.

      But will what they want to pass survive a filibuster…?

    • Reply by mimiami.

      NYT POLL

    • Reply by Robpos.

      Is Hillary actually running?

      I don’t think so.

      The polls were wrong…

    • Reply by mimiami.

      That was my point. Lest we forget, the NYT aggregator published above polling data just a few days before the 2016 election. It's July. Claiming Republicans are 'cooked' this year is just plain silly, and perhaps detrimental.

      Please do put any faith in polling data, (or Harry Enten) six months before an election.

    • Reply by iLuvReading.

      Do you mean, "please do NOT put any faith in polling data"?

    • Reply by mimiami.

      Yes, good catch. Thanks

    • Reply by Sulla.

      It's 4 months away, not 6 and that's a big difference.

      This is mirroring 2018, Trump's other midterm election.

      Nothing is guaranteed, but it's okay to like the current data.

    • Reply by stonykill.

      I can't speak for the nation as a whole, Robpos. But in New York and New Jersey, "nothing changes" doesn't hold true.

      But even here, I'm not taking things for granted. Postcards up next. Gotta try, not go all Eeyore.

  12. Comment by Harvey Manfrenjensenden.

    Perhaps the Republicans should persuade Donald Trump to build more things in his name or to name more things after himself.

    Perhaps after the state north of Texas renames itself "Trumplahoma," more voters will decide that they need more Republicans in their lives.

    I think that's a plan, and they should run with it. No need to thank me.

    • Reply by isthisnametaken.

      Don't give the repubs, here, any ideas! It's bad enough we have a trump highway, even if it is a short stretch in the middle of nowhere in the panhandle.

  13. Comment by David54.

    Another sign that they're desperate is that they're trying to steal the election. In fact they've almost completely given up on governance and focus entirely on rigging or stealing the election, manipulating the gullible, etc.

  14. Comment by Sidney.

    They tell us it will be a landslide, and then we lose by half a percent.

    • Reply by iLuvReading.

      I know, right? It's very disappointing. Still, I'm going to do what I can to elect the right people. We all should.

    • Reply by David54.

      Womp womp.

    • Reply by G2geek.

      What are you doing to help us win?

      'Don't mourn, organise!'

    • Reply by G2geek.

      YES to that. Everybody IN, that's how we WIN.

      There's enough activist work to do that everyone can find something and stick with it.

      Thanks majorly!

    • Reply by iLuvReading.

      My huge pleasure!

    • Reply by A Noah Count.

      Every time that happens, it makes me VERY suspicious that the Republicans did "something" to make the election come out in their favor. And by making the margin so slim, it creates an environment that no one dares to question their answer(s) for how it happened.

  15. Comment by littlesumpin.

    Never thought of the quantity of internal polling releases as a metric for campaign optimism (which could, in turn, be a proxy for chances in Nov) but it totally makes sense. Obviously these are correlation, not cause, but could be effective leading indicators.

  16. Comment by stevemb.

    >...However, the poll found Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz by 2 points in a seat that the GOP redrew to make it more Republican leaning....

    >...That poll showed the GOP nominee up just 3 points on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, which isn’t great for Republicans, given that their party just redrew the state’s congressional map to make the seat redder...

    A textbook case of "Dummymanders For Dummies".

  17. Comment by bobinson.

    Not delivering on campaign promises is one thing. Doing the exact opposite of what was promised is a whole other level of crap that Republicans seem to be embracing. They will lose in November and the post mortem will say that they need to sharpen up their messaging. Rinse, repeat.

  18. Comment by iLuvReading.

    I'm going to do some phone-banking for Texas Democrats at my local county Democratic HQ this afternoon, as well as this Saturday. Plus, I've ordered 100 postcards to write to voters in Texas U.S. HD 15. If this is really going to happen, we need to go all in for the Dems.

    • Reply by JimBobInMS.

      I just ordered my 100 postcards as well. Here is the group I ordered from: https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/. You pick the race or let them pick.

      They provide the cards, addresses, and a variety of messages. You buy the stamps and hand write the short message and the addresses. Post Card stamp rate going up soon. Beware of Stamp Scams, Buy only from the USPS website or at the Post Office.

    • Reply by iLuvReading.

      That's where I've ordered the postcards and I plan to order more.

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