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Behind the Curtain: Trump's irreversible choices

Photo illustration of President Trump pushing over the stripes of the U.S. flag — Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump has proudly stretched the power of the presidency in never-before-witnessed ways.

But it's the choices he's made with that power — often alone, often impulsive — that explain his plunging popularity and will define his second term.

Why it matters: Every president tests limits. Trump tests them faster than anyone, often with little thought about the consequences, his advisers tell us. Only courts or markets, or his quest for good press, can rein him in.

By then, the tariffs are in place, the war has started, the ally is insulted.

You can sort his choices into three buckets:

1. Rule of law as weapon: Trump has pointed the machinery of the federal government at his enemies while enriching himself and his family.

He sent ICE into American cities underprepared and with a shifting mandate — cheering the made-for-TV chest-thumping, even as agents jailed and deported some U.S. citizens.
He unleashed the Justice Department against critics, with indictments so thin that grand juries and Republican-appointed judges tossed some of them — while he rewarded supporters who claim they were targets of government "weaponization."
He let family and friends profit from the presidency.

2. Economy by improvisation: It often feels like Trump is running the world's largest economy on gut feelings and Truth Social posts.

He leveled haphazard, unpredictable tariffs on friends and adversaries alike — ignoring Congress, the courts and the Constitution in doing so.
He pressured a sitting Fed chair to force interest rates lower, with his DOJ going so far as to open a criminal investigation, breaking a half-century norm of central bank independence.
He announced 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff dividend checks on Truth Social without a detailed policy framework or legislative language.

3. Power projection on personal whim: Trump often seems to be running U.S. foreign policy and the military via social media — by instinct, with an eye on the visuals.

He taunted lifelong allies — NATO as a whole; Ukraine, Canada, Denmark, individually, among others — impulsively and personally, turning decades-old partnerships into punchlines.
He launched a war against Iran, at Israel's urging, without a clear plan for the long, brutal, expensive aftermath now unfolding.
He permitted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to oust the Army's top uniformed officer and the Navy secretary during the war.

By the numbers: Nate Silver's polling average has the president underwater by 19 points, a second-term low and right around the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attacks.

A CNN poll this month found 70% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy — a benchmark that never crossed 50% in his first term, even during the pandemic.

Between the lines: Trump's pattern is to take a hard line, then relent when bond yields turn bad or MAGA influencers balk. Social media dubbed this TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. But the pullback doesn't erase the act.

Supply chains have already moved. Allies have already hedged. An enemy in a war of choice still gets a vote on when it ends.

The bottom line: Much of the policy Trump puts in place can be undone by the next Democratic president. That's the result of acting alone, without leaning on Congress to pass laws.

But the world won't instantly trust America again. Generals don't just come out of forced retirement. Institutions, once bent, don't always snap cleanly back into place.

📱 Watch a "Behind the Curtain" video: Jim and Mike discuss Trump's ever-expanding uses of power. (Executive producer: Jimmy Shelton)