Saturday, April 18, 2026

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns 

 

Two hands reach toward stacks of poker chips, with a large explosion in the background
The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event, including the Iran war. Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.

These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.

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