Would be 'tremendous humiliation' for Trump if he were forced to lift blockade: Analyst

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Apr 23, 2026 #trump #politics #iran

The U.S. continues its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz while Iran says they are more likely to come to the negotiating table if the blockade on their ports were to end. MS NOW Washington Reporter Jackie Alemany spoke to President Trump this morning about the conflict. MS NOW Senior National Security Reporter David Rohde, Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations Steven Cook and Washington Post Columnist Max Boot join Ana Cabrera with their insight and analysis. MS NOW: My Source for News, Opinion, and the World. » Subscribe to MS NOW:

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Transcript

Follow along using the transcript.

1 second

Let's start the hour with MSNOW Washington reporter and co-host of The Weekend, Jackie Alemany at the White House. MSNOW senior And your national security reporter, David Rode, is here with me.

8 seconds

And two senior fellows at the Council of Foreign Relations are joining us,

13 seconds

foreign policy columnist Stephen Cook and Washington Post columnist Max Boot.

17 seconds

Jackie, you spoke with the president just this MORNING, WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

22 seconds

YEAH, ANA, ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE GOT FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS A STATUS ON THE SECOND ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS THAT WERE POSTPONED EARLIER THIS

30 seconds

week his answer to that question essentially TBD about when JD Vance Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner will return

38 seconds

to Islamabad continue to continue to try to hash out a longer-term deal he told me and I'll read the QUOTE,

44 seconds

THAT IRAN HAS NO IDEA WHO THEIR LEADER IS AT THIS MOMENT. HE SAID THEY'RE ALL MESSED UP.

50 seconds

YOU KNOW WE TOOK OUT REALLY THREE LEVELS OF LEADERS AND EVERYBODY THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE BEHIND HIM SO THEY HAVE A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHO THE HELL CAN SPEAK FOR THEIR COUNTRY.

59 seconds

THEY JUST DON'T KNOW.

1 minute, 1 second

NOW, I'M GOING TO SAVE THE FACT CHECK FOR OUR COLLEAGUE DAVID ROAD WHO QUICKLY SPOKE WITH A BUNCH OF EXPERTS ABOUT TRUMP'S CLAIMS WHO

1 minute, 8 seconds

HAVE ESSENTIALLY SAID THAT THEY I THINK SOME IMPORTANT CONTEXT HERE THAT, YOU KNOW, MIGHT HELP ILLUMINATE WHY THE SUDDEN

1 minute, 17 seconds

POSTURE CHANGE AND DIFFERENT TONE CHANGE THAT WE'RE hearing from the White House about extending patience to Iran,

1 minute, 25 seconds

issuing an indefinite ceasefire and basically allowing them to take their time and coming back to the negotiating table

1 minute, 33 seconds

is the intense political pressure that he is under right now.

1 minute, 36 seconds

He has new polling out this morning that shows that his approval ratings are at an all-time low.

1 minute, 41 seconds

You have energy experts around the world saying that the world is really now facing the greatest security threat in modern history

1 minute, 50 seconds

with regards to the lack of oil that is coming through the Strait of Hormuz. But meanwhile, the U .S.

1 minute, 56 seconds

has said that they're going to continue this blockade.

1 minute, 59 seconds

The Iranians have said that they would be more likely to return to the negotiating table if that blockade is ended by the U .S. military.

2 minutes, 6 seconds

So a lot of moving parts here, everything changing really hour by hour. Jackie Alimany, keep us posted. Thank you for that reporting.

2 minutes, 14 seconds

David, what are your sources telling you about the comments we heard from the president this morning and those really interesting videos we're seeing both sides release?

2 minutes, 21 seconds

I just want to thank Jackie for getting that interview.

2 minutes, 24 seconds

She's done an incredible job of reporting at the White House. In terms of those videos, again,

2 minutes, 29 seconds

the president talks about the Iranian Navy has been decimated. Every boat has been sunk. Well, there are members of the Iranian Navy,

2 minutes, 36 seconds

the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing a tanker. You can see it yourself on their videos. And they seized three tankers yesterday.

2 minutes, 44 seconds

They have a navy. They have closed the Strait of Hormuz, like period. So the president's claim there is false.

2 minutes, 50 seconds

And then the president's claim that the problem is the Iranians, and they don't know who their leader is, and they're all divided. That is also false. I mean, I've talked to multiple experts,

2 minutes, 58 seconds

and there's an amazing story in The New York Times. Farnaz Fasehi wrote it for them. She spoke to 23 people inside Iran.

3 minutes, 6 seconds

And so what has happened is the supreme leader was killed, his son has been named as a new leader,

3 minutes, 11 seconds

but essentially a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guard generals have taken over. They are in firm control of the country.

3 minutes, 18 seconds

They were already in power. It's not a new regime. And, in a way, it's more hard-line. But these generals are controlling Iran.

3 minutes, 25 seconds

They're deciding who negotiates where. So it's not a new government. It's not a divided government. And if anything, it's more hardline.

3 minutes, 34 seconds

And that's what I've heard from experts and what The New York Times is reporting as well. And Steven, it seems like the U .S.

3 minutes, 40 seconds

is still trying to figure out the best way to deal with Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

3 minutes, 44 seconds

Just this morning, President Trump reiterated his threat that the U .S.

3 minutes, 48 seconds

will strike these small fast attack boats Iran is using to seize much larger cargo ships and possibly lay more underwater mines.

3 minutes, 55 seconds

The president has previously said that he did not consider them much of a threat. Did the U .S.

4 minutes, 1 second

underestimate Iran's ability to use what looked like recreational speedboats to cripple the strait?

4 minutes, 8 seconds

Yeah, this is a tactic that the Iranians have used before.

4 minutes, 11 seconds

So I think this, the president's threats this morning are part of a pattern, the pattern where the president threatens escalation, expecting the Iranians to

4 minutes, 19 seconds

moderate their behavior or to stand down. And the Iranians take him up on the escalation,

4 minutes, 26 seconds

and then he's confronted with whether he has to escalate or look for some other solution to the problem. I think what's interesting about this episode,

4 minutes, 35 seconds

particularly with the extension of the ceasefire that the president announced yesterday is that it's clear that the Iranians have figured him out.

4 minutes, 45 seconds

They have. I've called his bluff. He does not want to escalate.

4 minutes, 48 seconds

And now they are playing this game where they say we will go to the negotiating table, but you have to lift the blockade.

4 minutes, 54 seconds

That would be a tremendous humiliation and setback for the president. If he were forced to do that.

5 minutes

Max, you have a plan for how to move negotiations ahead and it starts with the U .S. paring down the agenda. Walk us through it.

5 minutes, 9 seconds

Well, my thought is that, you know,

5 minutes, 11 seconds

it's possible that Trump could actually achieve something with his blockade if he doesn't get too ambitious.

5 minutes, 17 seconds

He's not going to convince the Iranians to suddenly surrender and give into all his demands. They've made pretty clear that's not going to happen,

5 minutes, 24 seconds

but I think there is the possibility of using the U .S.

5 minutes, 27 seconds

blockade of Iranian shipping as a bargaining chip to force the Iranians to lift their blockade of all non-Iranian shipping.

5 minutes, 36 seconds

So essentially what I THINK WE SHOULD DO NOW IS OFFER AN OPEN FOR OPEN DEAL TO THE IRANIANS WHERE WE LEFT OUR BLOCKADE AND THEY LEFT THEIR BLOCKADE.

5 minutes, 43 seconds

THAT ESSENTIALLY REMOVES THE GUN FROM THE HEAD OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND ALSO FROM THE HEAD OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY BECAUSE BOTH ARE IN serious jeopardy as long

5 minutes, 52 seconds

as the blockades continue and buy some time to have lengthy negotiations on the nuclear issue, which are not going to be resolved overnight.

6 minutes, 1 second

I think that's the only way forward.

6 minutes, 3 seconds

Because otherwise, if both blockades stay in place, it's basically a ticking time bomb. And the damage to the global economy will worsen.

6 minutes, 12 seconds

We're likely to see thrust into a recession.

6 minutes, 14 seconds

The damage to the Iranian economy will will worsen as well.

6 minutes, 17 seconds

But again, I very much doubt that this cabal of generals who, as David noted, are now in charge of Iran.

6 minutes, 23 seconds

I very much doubt that they will surrender on what they see as their red lines. And David, on the economic pressure, it looks like it's a test of wills in many ways.

6 minutes, 32 seconds

On one hand, the president is risking costing his party the midterms at this point because of the cost of gas prices.

6 minutes, 40 seconds

On the other hand, Iran is really putting so much trade at risk here, half a billion dollars a day in lost trade because of the blockade the U .S.

6 minutes, 49 seconds

has inflicted them with. Which side can endure more pain longer?

6 minutes, 53 seconds

So, Sudeep ready MSNOW's Washington bureau chief asked me and Julia Jester, who covers the State Department, to ask experts.

6 minutes, 59 seconds

And the vast majority said Iran clearly can endure more economic pain.

7 minutes, 4 seconds

It's a terrible situation. This is a terrible government. It's, you know, shot and killed protesters. But because Iran isn't a democracy,

7 minutes, 11 seconds

they're not really accountable to the population.

7 minutes, 14 seconds

And beyond that, they have been under some kind of sanctions since like the 1980s.

7 minutes, 18 seconds

So it will hurt them. They're going to be short on cash.

7 minutes, 21 seconds

They can't sell oil, but they grow their own food.

7 minutes, 24 seconds

They've learned how to limit the kind of imports they need.

7 minutes, 27 seconds

Whereas oil experts are saying if this continues through the end of April, some of the gas shortages, not just high prices,

7 minutes, 34 seconds

but a shortage of fuels that we see in Asia and other parts of the world could start hitting the U .S. next month.

7 minutes, 40 seconds

And so, Stephen, Jackie told us there are these logistical and communication challenges that the president discussed with her,

7 minutes, 49 seconds

that he's dealing with, and why it's halted negotiations moving forward.

7 minutes, 53 seconds

I want to play just a portion of what he's been saying about finding an end to the war. Let's listen.

8 minutes

The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night. Let's see what happens. Maybe they make a deal.

8 minutes, 8 seconds

maybe they don't. From the standpoint of America, we win. I think they will agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it. If they don't agree,

8 minutes, 16 seconds

there's no deal. There'll never be a I THINK IT'S A GOOD DEAL. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. WE CAN DO WHATEVER WE WANT.

8 minutes, 25 seconds

AND IT SHOULD BE ENDING pretty soon. That sense of urgency, what does this,

8 minutes, 31 seconds

what are all the posts the president's been putting out signal to Iran and does it help the U .S. negotiating position?

8 minutes, 40 seconds

I get the sense of desperation of the president who backed himself into a conflict that he thought would be over in a number of days.

8 minutes, 46 seconds

And I think the Iranians have a pretty good read on the president and are not taking up taking him up on any of the bluster.

8 minutes, 55 seconds

They are responding in kind. So I think it would suggest that negotiations, if they happen,

9 minutes, 1 second

will be long and extremely difficult.

9 minutes, 6 seconds

But they know these are the hardest of the hardliners in Iran.

9 minutes, 9 seconds

They are willing to allow the Iranians to eat dirt before capitulating to the United States.

9 minutes, 14 seconds

That's not likely to be the case when if if and when there are gas shortages in the United States or people's summer travel seasons are disrupted because there's lack of jet fuel.

9 minutes, 23 seconds

I think the president knows this,

9 minutes, 26 seconds

and he's looking for different ways by threatening escalation, and that's his only card,

9 minutes, 32 seconds

and the Iranians have JUST NOT BEEN WILLING TO PLAY.

9 minutes, 34 seconds

AND MAX, BOTH CBS AND NBC NEWS ARE NOW REPORTING THAT IRAN'S MISSILE CAPABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN DESTROYED AS SIGNIFICANTLY

9 minutes, 42 seconds

AS THE PRESIDENT AND THE PENTAGON HAVE BEEN SAYING. HOW CONCERNING IS THIS?

9 minutes, 45 seconds

HOW HAS Iran been able to be so resilient militarily?

9 minutes, 51 seconds

I think this is another example of a nation that's pretty successfully waging asymmetric warfare against the United States, even though we're much more powerful.

9 minutes, 59 seconds

We've seen another version of this in previous decades in Iraq and Afghanistan,

10 minutes, 4 seconds

where I think the Bush administration and Don Rumsoldt and others were saying like, how can we possibly not be winning in Iraq?

10 minutes, 10 seconds

Because we're so much more powerful than the insurgents.

10 minutes, 12 seconds

Well, the insurgents in Iraq figured out how to hit America's weak points with IEDs and guerrilla attacks,

10 minutes, 19 seconds

and the Iranians have figured out how to hit our weak points, and really the weak points of the entire Persian Gulf energy infrastructure,

10 minutes, 26 seconds

which they've targeted so successfully with missiles and drones.

10 minutes, 30 seconds

And despite all of the strikes that Pete Hexeth keeps bragging about,

10 minutes, 34 seconds

that we've launched against Iran and the 15 ,000 targets that we've hit,

10 minutes, 51 seconds

it doesn't take much to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

10 minutes, 53 seconds

It just takes the threat of an attack on a single tank or cargo ship to paralyze 20 percent of the world's global energy flows.

11 minutes, 2 seconds

And that's the weapon of mass economic destruction that the Iranians are now wielding so successfully.

11 minutes, 9 seconds

And Trump really has not figured out a counter to that. Max Boot, Stephen Cook and David Rode,

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