Would be 'tremendous humiliation' for Trump if he were forced to lift blockade: Analyst
Would be 'tremendous humiliation' for Trump if he were forced to lift blockade: Analyst
The U.S. continues its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz while Iran says they are more likely to come to the negotiating table if the blockade on their ports were to end. MS NOW Washington Reporter Jackie Alemany spoke to President Trump this morning about the conflict. MS NOW Senior National Security Reporter David Rohde, Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations Steven Cook and Washington Post Columnist Max Boot join Ana Cabrera with their insight and analysis.
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Transcript
Follow along using the transcript.
0:01
1 second
Let's
start the hour with MSNOW Washington reporter and co-host of The
Weekend, Jackie Alemany at the White House. MSNOW senior And your
national security reporter, David Rode, is here with me.0:08
8 seconds
And two senior fellows at the Council of Foreign Relations are joining us,0:13
13 seconds
foreign policy columnist Stephen Cook and Washington Post columnist Max Boot.0:17
17 seconds
Jackie, you spoke with the president just this MORNING, WHAT DID YOU LEARN?0:22
22 seconds
YEAH,
ANA, ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE GOT FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS A STATUS ON THE
SECOND ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS THAT WERE POSTPONED EARLIER THIS0:30
30 seconds
week his answer to that question essentially TBD about when JD Vance Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner will return0:38
38 seconds
to Islamabad continue to continue to try to hash out a longer-term deal he told me and I'll read the QUOTE,0:44
44 seconds
THAT IRAN HAS NO IDEA WHO THEIR LEADER IS AT THIS MOMENT. HE SAID THEY'RE ALL MESSED UP.0:50
50 seconds
YOU
KNOW WE TOOK OUT REALLY THREE LEVELS OF LEADERS AND EVERYBODY THAT WAS
EVEN CLOSE BEHIND HIM SO THEY HAVE A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHO THE HELL
CAN SPEAK FOR THEIR COUNTRY.0:59
59 seconds
THEY JUST DON'T KNOW.1:01
1 minute, 1 second
NOW,
I'M GOING TO SAVE THE FACT CHECK FOR OUR COLLEAGUE DAVID ROAD WHO
QUICKLY SPOKE WITH A BUNCH OF EXPERTS ABOUT TRUMP'S CLAIMS WHO1:08
1 minute, 8 seconds
HAVE ESSENTIALLY SAID THAT THEY I THINK SOME IMPORTANT CONTEXT HERE THAT, YOU KNOW, MIGHT HELP ILLUMINATE WHY THE SUDDEN1:17
1 minute, 17 seconds
POSTURE CHANGE AND DIFFERENT TONE CHANGE THAT WE'RE hearing from the White House about extending patience to Iran,1:25
1 minute, 25 seconds
issuing an indefinite ceasefire and basically allowing them to take their time and coming back to the negotiating table1:33
1 minute, 33 seconds
is the intense political pressure that he is under right now.1:36
1 minute, 36 seconds
He has new polling out this morning that shows that his approval ratings are at an all-time low.1:41
1 minute, 41 seconds
You
have energy experts around the world saying that the world is really
now facing the greatest security threat in modern history1:50
1 minute, 50 seconds
with regards to the lack of oil that is coming through the Strait of Hormuz. But meanwhile, the U .S.1:56
1 minute, 56 seconds
has said that they're going to continue this blockade.1:59
1 minute, 59 seconds
The
Iranians have said that they would be more likely to return to the
negotiating table if that blockade is ended by the U .S. military.2:06
2 minutes, 6 seconds
So
a lot of moving parts here, everything changing really hour by hour.
Jackie Alimany, keep us posted. Thank you for that reporting.2:14
2 minutes, 14 seconds
David,
what are your sources telling you about the comments we heard from the
president this morning and those really interesting videos we're seeing
both sides release?2:21
2 minutes, 21 seconds
I just want to thank Jackie for getting that interview.2:24
2 minutes, 24 seconds
She's done an incredible job of reporting at the White House. In terms of those videos, again,2:29
2 minutes, 29 seconds
the
president talks about the Iranian Navy has been decimated. Every boat
has been sunk. Well, there are members of the Iranian Navy,2:36
2 minutes, 36 seconds
the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing a tanker. You can see it yourself
on their videos. And they seized three tankers yesterday.2:44
2 minutes, 44 seconds
They have a navy. They have closed the Strait of Hormuz, like period. So the president's claim there is false.2:50
2 minutes, 50 seconds
And
then the president's claim that the problem is the Iranians, and they
don't know who their leader is, and they're all divided. That is also
false. I mean, I've talked to multiple experts,2:58
2 minutes, 58 seconds
and there's an amazing story in The New York Times. Farnaz Fasehi wrote it for them. She spoke to 23 people inside Iran.3:06
3 minutes, 6 seconds
And so what has happened is the supreme leader was killed, his son has been named as a new leader,3:11
3 minutes, 11 seconds
but essentially a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guard generals have taken over. They are in firm control of the country.3:18
3 minutes, 18 seconds
They were already in power. It's not a new regime. And, in a way, it's more hard-line. But these generals are controlling Iran.3:25
3 minutes, 25 seconds
They're
deciding who negotiates where. So it's not a new government. It's not a
divided government. And if anything, it's more hardline.3:34
3 minutes, 34 seconds
And that's what I've heard from experts and what The New York Times is reporting as well. And Steven, it seems like the U .S.3:40
3 minutes, 40 seconds
is still trying to figure out the best way to deal with Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.3:44
3 minutes, 44 seconds
Just this morning, President Trump reiterated his threat that the U .S.3:48
3 minutes, 48 seconds
will strike these small fast attack boats Iran is using to seize much larger cargo ships and possibly lay more underwater mines.3:55
3 minutes, 55 seconds
The president has previously said that he did not consider them much of a threat. Did the U .S.4:01
4 minutes, 1 second
underestimate Iran's ability to use what looked like recreational speedboats to cripple the strait?4:08
4 minutes, 8 seconds
Yeah, this is a tactic that the Iranians have used before.4:11
4 minutes, 11 seconds
So
I think this, the president's threats this morning are part of a
pattern, the pattern where the president threatens escalation,
expecting the Iranians to 4:19
4 minutes, 19 seconds
moderate their behavior or to stand down. And the Iranians take him up on the escalation,4:26
4 minutes, 26 seconds
and
then he's confronted with whether he has to escalate or look for some
other solution to the problem. I think what's interesting about this
episode,4:35
4 minutes, 35 seconds
particularly
with the extension of the ceasefire that the president announced
yesterday is that it's clear that the Iranians have figured him out.4:45
4 minutes, 45 seconds
They have. I've called his bluff. He does not want to escalate.4:48
4 minutes, 48 seconds
And now they are playing this game where they say we will go to the negotiating table, but you have to lift the blockade.4:54
4 minutes, 54 seconds
That would be a tremendous humiliation and setback for the president. If he were forced to do that.5:00
5 minutes
Max, you have a plan for how to move negotiations ahead and it starts with the U .S. paring down the agenda. Walk us through it.5:09
5 minutes, 9 seconds
Well, my thought is that, you know,5:11
5 minutes, 11 seconds
it's possible that Trump could actually achieve something with his blockade if he doesn't get too ambitious.5:17
5 minutes, 17 seconds
He's
not going to convince the Iranians to suddenly surrender and give into
all his demands. They've made pretty clear that's not going to happen,5:24
5 minutes, 24 seconds
but I think there is the possibility of using the U .S.5:27
5 minutes, 27 seconds
blockade of Iranian shipping as a bargaining chip to force the Iranians to lift their blockade of all non-Iranian shipping.5:36
5 minutes, 36 seconds
So
essentially what I THINK WE SHOULD DO NOW IS OFFER AN OPEN FOR OPEN
DEAL TO THE IRANIANS WHERE WE LEFT OUR BLOCKADE AND THEY LEFT THEIR
BLOCKADE.5:43
5 minutes, 43 seconds
THAT
ESSENTIALLY REMOVES THE GUN FROM THE HEAD OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND
ALSO FROM THE HEAD OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY BECAUSE BOTH ARE IN serious
jeopardy as long5:52
5 minutes, 52 seconds
as
the blockades continue and buy some time to have lengthy negotiations
on the nuclear issue, which are not going to be resolved overnight.6:01
6 minutes, 1 second
I think that's the only way forward.6:03
6 minutes, 3 seconds
Because
otherwise, if both blockades stay in place, it's basically a ticking
time bomb. And the damage to the global economy will worsen.6:12
6 minutes, 12 seconds
We're likely to see thrust into a recession.6:14
6 minutes, 14 seconds
The damage to the Iranian economy will will worsen as well.6:17
6 minutes, 17 seconds
But again, I very much doubt that this cabal of generals who, as David noted, are now in charge of Iran.6:23
6 minutes, 23 seconds
I
very much doubt that they will surrender on what they see as their red
lines. And David, on the economic pressure, it looks like it's a test of
wills in many ways.6:32
6 minutes, 32 seconds
On one hand, the president is risking costing his party the midterms at this point because of the cost of gas prices.6:40
6 minutes, 40 seconds
On
the other hand, Iran is really putting so much trade at risk here,
half a billion dollars a day in lost trade because of the blockade the U
.S.6:49
6 minutes, 49 seconds
has inflicted them with. Which side can endure more pain longer?6:53
6 minutes, 53 seconds
So, Sudeep ready MSNOW's Washington bureau chief asked me and Julia Jester, who covers the State Department, to ask experts.6:59
6 minutes, 59 seconds
And the vast majority said Iran clearly can endure more economic pain.7:04
7 minutes, 4 seconds
It's
a terrible situation. This is a terrible government. It's, you know,
shot and killed protesters. But because Iran isn't a democracy,7:11
7 minutes, 11 seconds
they're not really accountable to the population.7:14
7 minutes, 14 seconds
And beyond that, they have been under some kind of sanctions since like the 1980s.7:18
7 minutes, 18 seconds
So it will hurt them. They're going to be short on cash.7:21
7 minutes, 21 seconds
They can't sell oil, but they grow their own food.7:24
7 minutes, 24 seconds
They've learned how to limit the kind of imports they need.7:27
7 minutes, 27 seconds
Whereas oil experts are saying if this continues through the end of April, some of the gas shortages, not just high prices,7:34
7 minutes, 34 seconds
but a shortage of fuels that we see in Asia and other parts of the world could start hitting the U .S. next month.7:40
7 minutes, 40 seconds
And so, Stephen, Jackie told us there are these logistical and communication challenges that the president discussed with her,7:49
7 minutes, 49 seconds
that he's dealing with, and why it's halted negotiations moving forward.7:53
7 minutes, 53 seconds
I want to play just a portion of what he's been saying about finding an end to the war. Let's listen.8:00
8 minutes
The
entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be
tomorrow night. Let's see what happens. Maybe they make a deal.8:08
8 minutes, 8 seconds
maybe
they don't. From the standpoint of America, we win. I think they will
agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it. If they
don't agree,8:16
8 minutes, 16 seconds
there's no deal. There'll never be a I THINK IT'S A GOOD DEAL. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. WE CAN DO WHATEVER WE WANT.8:25
8 minutes, 25 seconds
AND IT SHOULD BE ENDING pretty soon. That sense of urgency, what does this,8:31
8 minutes, 31 seconds
what are all the posts the president's been putting out signal to Iran and does it help the U .S. negotiating position?8:40
8 minutes, 40 seconds
I
get the sense of desperation of the president who backed himself into a
conflict that he thought would be over in a number of days.8:46
8 minutes, 46 seconds
And I think the Iranians have a pretty good read on the president and are not taking up taking him up on any of the bluster.8:55
8 minutes, 55 seconds
They are responding in kind. So I think it would suggest that negotiations, if they happen,9:01
9 minutes, 1 second
will be long and extremely difficult.9:06
9 minutes, 6 seconds
But they know these are the hardest of the hardliners in Iran.9:09
9 minutes, 9 seconds
They are willing to allow the Iranians to eat dirt before capitulating to the United States.9:14
9 minutes, 14 seconds
That's
not likely to be the case when if if and when there are gas shortages
in the United States or people's summer travel seasons are disrupted
because there's lack of jet fuel.9:23
9 minutes, 23 seconds
I think the president knows this,9:26
9 minutes, 26 seconds
and he's looking for different ways by threatening escalation, and that's his only card,9:32
9 minutes, 32 seconds
and the Iranians have JUST NOT BEEN WILLING TO PLAY.9:34
9 minutes, 34 seconds
AND MAX, BOTH CBS AND NBC NEWS ARE NOW REPORTING THAT IRAN'S MISSILE CAPABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN DESTROYED AS SIGNIFICANTLY9:42
9 minutes, 42 seconds
AS THE PRESIDENT AND THE PENTAGON HAVE BEEN SAYING. HOW CONCERNING IS THIS?9:45
9 minutes, 45 seconds
HOW HAS Iran been able to be so resilient militarily?9:51
9 minutes, 51 seconds
I
think this is another example of a nation that's pretty successfully
waging asymmetric warfare against the United States, even though we're
much more powerful.9:59
9 minutes, 59 seconds
We've seen another version of this in previous decades in Iraq and Afghanistan,10:04
10 minutes, 4 seconds
where I think the Bush administration and Don Rumsoldt and others were saying like, how can we possibly not be winning in Iraq?10:10
10 minutes, 10 seconds
Because we're so much more powerful than the insurgents.10:12
10 minutes, 12 seconds
Well, the insurgents in Iraq figured out how to hit America's weak points with IEDs and guerrilla attacks,10:19
10 minutes, 19 seconds
and
the Iranians have figured out how to hit our weak points, and really
the weak points of the entire Persian Gulf energy infrastructure,10:26
10 minutes, 26 seconds
which they've targeted so successfully with missiles and drones.10:30
10 minutes, 30 seconds
And despite all of the strikes that Pete Hexeth keeps bragging about,10:34
10 minutes, 34 seconds
that we've launched against Iran and the 15 ,000 targets that we've hit,10:51
10 minutes, 51 seconds
it doesn't take much to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.10:53
10 minutes, 53 seconds
It just takes the threat of an attack on a single tank or cargo ship to paralyze 20 percent of the world's global energy flows.11:02
11 minutes, 2 seconds
And that's the weapon of mass economic destruction that the Iranians are now wielding so successfully.11:09
11 minutes, 9 seconds
And Trump really has not figured out a counter to that. Max Boot, Stephen Cook and David Rode,
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