President Trump told Fox Business he believes the war with Iran is "close to over." The U.S. continues its naval blockade on Iranian ports. MS NOW Senior National Security Reporter David Rohde has more details. Retired U.S. Army Lt. General Mark Hertling and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Richard Nephew join Ana Cabrera to provide more insight.
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in MSNOW senior national security reporter David Rode, former deputy special envo for Iran Richard Nephews and retired U .S.
8 seconds
Army Lieutenant General Mark Hurtling. And first, let me start with you, David, because we have some conflicting messages.13 seconds
CENTCOM says the blockade has been fully implemented.15 seconds
But
the president, in another post this morning, says that he is fully
reopening the strait. So which is it? Give us a reality check.23 seconds
So I think it's true that the ships are not going in and out of Iranian ports.28 seconds
THAT'S THE MAIN GOAL, THAT'S WHAT CENTCOMPS WANTED TO ACHIEVE.31 seconds
BUT WITH THE KEY FOR THIS STRATEGY TO WORK IS THAT OTHER SHIPS START COMING OUT, SHIPS FROM FRIENDLY COUNTRIES TO THE U .S.,37 seconds
FROM KUWAIT, UNITED EMIRATES, SOME OF THOSE TANKERS THAT HAVE BEEN waiting for so long can start bringing oil out from there.44 seconds
That's
not happening because a lot of ship companies, not in large numbers,
are worried about mines. They're worried about Iranian drone attacks. So
the U .S.52 seconds
has set up a blockade, but it hasn't set up convoys to escort those tankers. So that's the problem.57 seconds
And
I just want to flag one thing the president said, I think they want a
deal very badly. He's been saying that for weeks. And there, I was sort
of talking.1 minute, 6 seconds
He's been saying the war is almost over for weeks also.1 minute, 8 seconds
And look, I hope he's right and I hope this war ends quickly.1 minute, 12 seconds
But there's a belief and there was a statistic that Admiral Cooper mentioned that cutting off the closing the sea ports1 minute, 19 seconds
will end 90 % of, that 90 % of Iran's trade with the outside world is via sea routes.1 minute, 25 seconds
That's true in terms of dollars because we're talking about a lot of oil.1 minute, 28 seconds
All kinds of food and other materials comes in by land.1 minute, 32 seconds
They have borders with Turkey and Iraq and Pakistan and Afghanistan.1 minute, 36 seconds
So
I worry the administration is overestimating how quickly they're going
to buckle, because over and over again, the Iranians have showed, you
know, we bombed them,1 minute, 45 seconds
now we're cutting off their ports.1 minute, 47 seconds
But they are defiant and they're tough negotiators.1 minute, 50 seconds
So I think, and I had one person tell me yesterday that the blockade, it could take weeks,1 minute, 55 seconds
weeks of blockading Iranian ports for Iran to make major concessions.1 minute, 59 seconds
So let's talk about what that could look like in practicality.2 minutes, 2 seconds
General,
you wrote a piece for The Bulwark breaking down what this blockade of
the Iranian ports and coastline means for the Navy strategically as far
as resources is used to implement it.2 minutes, 12 seconds
What goes into maintaining this blockade? A lot, Anna, that's all I can say. A lot goes into it. And this is a limited blockade.2 minutes, 21 seconds
It's not a complete blockade of the sea areas around it. But as David just said, there are things that go on.2 minutes, 28 seconds
And
I think most Americans believe a blockade is like a wall that you can't
get in and out. But David just mentioned the escort of ships.2 minutes, 36 seconds
That's critical.2 minutes, 37 seconds
The
continuous minesweeping, that's critical. The intelligence collection,
the overhead cover from aircraft, all of the things that protect the
force,2 minutes, 44 seconds
the potential air defense that the ships have to provide in case of any firing by Iran on merchant vessels.2 minutes, 52 seconds
So all of those things are important.2 minutes, 54 seconds
When you just say blockade, it seems like a very simple task,2 minutes, 57 seconds
but
there are literally thousands of sailors involved in this and dozens of
ship up potentially if you do the escort mission as well as the
minesweeping mission and the protection mission.3 minutes, 9 seconds
So it does take a lot, and it's very costly. But I'd add one more thing to this.3 minutes, 15 seconds
While
we, the United States and CENTCOM are blocking the Iranian ports from
goods coming in, it's also blocking goods from going out.3 minutes, 24 seconds
And that's going to affect, continue to affect the world's economy in a very bad way.3 minutes, 29 seconds
There's a lot of countries waiting for those goods, especially the oil, especially in areas like Asia.3 minutes, 35 seconds
So this is going to have global effects on a supply chain around the world.3 minutes, 41 seconds
We know that reopening the Strait is a key priority right now for the administration because of those economic impacts.3 minutes, 47 seconds
There are reports, Richard, that mediators are moving closer to extending the ceasefire.3 minutes, 52 seconds
The president told the New York Post in an interview that additional peace talks could be happening over the next two days.3 minutes, 58 seconds
Does all that suggest progress has actually been made when it comes to some kind of a deal?4 minutes, 3 seconds
Does that mean there are actually new developments to TO DISCUSS? I DON'T THINK SO.4 minutes, 10 seconds
I
THINK IT BASICALLY MEANS THAT EVERYONE IS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE CEASE FIRE WERE TO BREAK DOWN.4 minutes, 17 seconds
FOR ALL THE REASONS THAT WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING RIGHT NOW, I THINK IT IS A LOT OF INTERESTS AT STAKE BOTH IN THE UNITED STATES,4 minutes, 24 seconds
GULF-ARAB STATES AND IN IRAN AND NOT HAVING A RESUMPTION OF THE SORTS OF ATTACKS THAT WERE TAKING THAT IS WHAT WE ARE DOING.4 minutes, 29 seconds
THE IRANIANS STILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO LAND MISSILES AND DRONES IN GULF OF ARAB STATES.4 minutes, 34 seconds
THEY
HAVE THE ABILITY TO CONTINUE CAUSING DAMAGE JUST AS THE UNITED STATES
AND ISRAEL have the ability to cause damage inside of Iran.4 minutes, 41 seconds
So,
the idea that there is a desire to extend the ceasefire makes complete
sense to me, but it's not a demonstration that we're moving towards some
kind4 minutes, 49 seconds
of
deal because there are still very real issues that would make I THINK
IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE FROM HIS INTERVIEW WITH FOX BUSINESS.5 minutes, 2 seconds
THEY HAVE NO NAVY, NO AIR FORCE. EVERYTHING HAS BEEN WIPED OUT, THEY HAVE NO ANTI-AIRCRAFT EQUIPMENT,5 minutes, 9 seconds
THEY HAVE NO RADAR, THEY HAVE NO LEADERS. THE LEADERS THEY HAVE NOW IT'S A NEW REGIME, OKAY?5 minutes, 15 seconds
AND WE FIND THEM PRETTY REASONABLE TO BE HONEST WITH YOU.5 minutes, 17 seconds
BY
COMPARISON, IT IS A NEW REGIME AND I THINK WE ARE DOING VERY WELL BUT
IT ONLY MATTERS WHAT THE END RESULT IS AND MAYBE IT WILL HAPPEN FAIRLY
SOON.5 minutes, 28 seconds
WHO WE HAVE HEARD THAT LANGUAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT BEFORE AS WE WERE JUST DISCUSSING WITH DAVID.5 minutes, 36 seconds
DO YOU BELIEVE HIM, GENERAL? I'M GOING TO CITE SOMETHING A MENTOR ONCE TOLD me, if you want a new idea, read an old book.5 minutes, 44 seconds
Over the last couple of days,5 minutes, 45 seconds
I've been reading an old book about the Iran-Iraq War.5 minutes, 48 seconds
This was a war where Iraq thought they could bluster themselves into a fight.5 minutes, 54 seconds
They could push over the Iranian government because it was in turmoil. It had bad finances.6 minutes
It had new leadership in the first Ayatollah regime after the 79 revolts.6 minutes, 7 seconds
But for eight years, that war went on because Iran,6 minutes, 12 seconds
for
some odd reason, seemed to pull it together and bring their nation
together. It's a tough piece of terrain. There's a lot of dangers in
this area.6 minutes, 20 seconds
They hide weapons all over a very large country.6 minutes, 23 seconds
And,
you know, what Iraq found in that eight-year war was they were always
surprised by the resilience of the Iranian government and the Iranian
people.6 minutes, 33 seconds
So no, in my view, this war is not going to be over very quickly.6 minutes, 38 seconds
And,
David, we heard him say this is a new regime and he called them pretty
reasonable, but your reporting and others suggest otherwise.6 minutes, 45 seconds
It's false. There is not a new regime.6 minutes, 48 seconds
The current supreme leader of Iran is the son of the last supreme leader of Iran.6 minutes, 52 seconds
And as we've talked about, so the current supreme leader,6 minutes, 55 seconds
his
father was killed in this initial airstrike by Israel and the U .S.,
his wife and one of his children. He's also reported to be maimed.7 minutes, 4 seconds
But
all of the current leaders that are in the government, they're IRGC.
They're very hard line. So it's not a new regime. They're not changing
their negotiating position.7 minutes, 13 seconds
So, and I want to say this rarely, but that claim by the president is false.7 minutes, 18 seconds
Richard,
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Europe is accelerating a
fallback plan in the event that the president decides to pull the United
States out of NATO,7 minutes, 27 seconds
and he's hammering on NATO again this morning.7 minutes, 29 seconds
Of course, pulling out of NATO would require congressional approval.7 minutes, 33 seconds
But what do you view as the repercussions if the U .S. did withdraw from this alliance? Well, it'd be terrible.7 minutes, 40 seconds
It'd be terrible in terms of our ability to deter further Russian aggression into Europe.7 minutes, 45 seconds
And that obviously is the first and foremost responsibility of NATO.7 minutes, 50 seconds
But it will also WOULD DEMONSTRATE A REAL LOSS OF THE U .S. ABILITY TO LEAD PARTNERS AND ALLIES,7 minutes, 57 seconds
AND THAT HAS BEEN ULTIMATELY OUR GREATEST ABILITY TO BOTH PROJECT POWER AS WELL AS TO WORK8 minutes, 6 seconds
I
THINK THE LAST THING IT WOULD ALSO DEMONSTRATE IS THAT WE'VE LOST THE
ABILITY TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THE KINDS OF ISSUES, THE KINDS OF PRIORITIES8 minutes, 14 seconds
THAT
WE HAVE ARE MEANINGFUL AND THAT WE HAVE STRATEGYS AND SOLUTIONS TO
ADDRESS THEM, DRIVE FROM NATO BECAUSE WE CAN'T GET NATO ALLIES TO JOIN
US IN A WAR,8 minutes, 22 seconds
THEY HAD NO CONSULTATION AND FIGHTING AND IS CAUSING THEM SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC PROGRESS. IT'S A DEMONSTRATION OF OUR FAILURES,8 minutes, 31 seconds
AND IT WOULD BE SEEN AS SUCH,8 minutes, 33 seconds
AND I THINK IT WOULD BE SEEN AS SUCH BY OUR ADVERSERS.8 minutes, 35 seconds
IN GENERAL, CHINA HAS BEEN SILENT FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN RECENTLY HAS GROWN LOUDER, CALLING THE U .S.8 minutes, 42 seconds
BLOCKADE DANGEROUS AND irresponsible. The president, in his post just this morning, says he is now opening the Strait for China.8 minutes, 50 seconds
I wonder, has this whole crisis, this war the U .S.8 minutes, 53 seconds
launched with Iran changed global power dynamics.8 minutes, 57 seconds
Certainly has on it is shifting quite a bit of things that are not only becoming chaotic, but also somewhat dysfunctional.9 minutes, 6 seconds
You see that the administration put out a national security strategy several months ago,9 minutes, 11 seconds
followed by a national defense strategy saying China was their biggest adversary. Basically saying we didn't need allies either,9 minutes, 19 seconds
that allies had to work for themselves in their specific area of operation. Both of those things have now been proven false.9 minutes, 27 seconds
China
is not an adversary, it appears like they're being welcomed into the
fold and the president is bending over for them to get9 minutes, 35 seconds
them back into the Straits, because he knows how powerful and how important oil is to the Chinese government,9 minutes, 42 seconds
and how he has to meet with President Xi here shortly. So all of these things are disrupting.9 minutes, 48 seconds
And I'll give one more lesson I learned a long time ago.9 minutes, 52 seconds
Words are important, so we ought to be precise when we talk about these kind of things.9 minutes, 56 seconds
And
the last thing we're seeing in some of the dealings with Iran and other
nations in the world is precision in what we're messaging and
information is an important part of national power.10 minutes, 7 seconds
And we seem to be squandering it right now. GENERAL HERTLING, DAVID ROAD, RICHARD DEPHEW,
MS NOW
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