Monday, May 18, 2026

Republicans can’t gerrymander their way out of this midterm environment

 

Republicans can’t gerrymander their way out of this midterm environment

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/5/18/800040706/news/trump-new-york-times-siena-poll-approval-generic-ballot-midterms-gerrymander/ 

Republicans can’t gerrymander their way out of this midterm environment

by Emily Singer
Staff
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President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Friday, July 25, 2025, in Washington.
Attribution: APPresident Donald Trump, shown this past July.

Republicans have been exuberant since the right-wing Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act about three weeks ago, and since another court nullified the congressional map Democrats redrew in Virginia. Altogether, it’s made the GOP feel like it has a chance to maintain its House majority in this fall’s midterm elections.

But a new New York Times/Siena University poll released Monday should take all the wind out of Republicans’ sails. Its results suggest the midterms may instead be an electoral wipeout for the party.

The survey, one of the most reputable in the industry, finds that just 37% of voters approve of how Donald Trump is handling his job as president. That’s the lowest the poll has clocked his approval rating in either of his terms.

Even worse for Republicans is that the survey finds Democrats with a 10-percentage-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they want to see control Congress after the next election. Among the voters who expressed high certainty that they would vote, Democrats’ lead jumps to a staggering 14 points. 

That number is so high that Republicans would not only lose the House but possibly the Senate, too. In the House, the GOP’s new gerrymanders could very well become dummymanders, or gerrymanders that backfire, endangering more members of the party than they’re intended to help.

“This is why the GOP victory laps of the last two weeks have been premature,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the nonpartisan political handicapping outlet Inside Elections, wrote in a post on X. “You cannot redistrict your way out of that environment.”

Perhaps worst of all for Republicans is that the Times/Siena poll finds that Trump’s floor—or the lowest level of support he could get given partisan divides and his cultish base—is falling. That suggests that even some Trump die-hards are jumping ship.

“The possibility that Mr. Trump’s floor is cracking raises the prospect of even more significant, longer-term political consequences,” said Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst. “If the war and high prices persist, Mr. Trump’s troubles could start to look less like other recent polarizing presidencies and more like those of George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Lyndon Johnson or Harry Truman, in which quagmire abroad and economic challenges at home did significant political damage to their parties.”

The only bright spot for Republicans is that this poll was taken in May, six months from Election Day. Ostensibly, that gives Trump and the GOP time to improve their standing.

However, nothing Trump is doing is going to help him politically. He still hasn’t been able to find a solution to the unpopular war he started in Iran, which has upended the global energy market, once again spiking inflation and hurting Americans’ finances.

Last week, Trump gave Democrats ammo for their midterm ads when he said on camera “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” when making decisions in Iran. 

When Fox News host Bret Baier later gave Trump a softball question in a one-on-one interview, in an attempt to allow Trump to clean up his statement, Trump instead doubled down, calling it a “perfect statement” and saying that he’d “make it again” if asked the same question.

Meanwhile, as Americans are struggling, Trump is laser-focused on his gilded White House ballroom project, which he now wants Americans to pay for even though they overwhelmingly disapprove of its construction.

Republicans are in deep trouble this fall. And they have only themselves to blame.

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  1. Comment by No Straight Lines.

    Look at the breakdown between approval levels. 47-51% of people surveyed strongly disapprove is more than partisans being partisan. Us progressive partisans obviously strongly disapprove. But the number of folks who aren't us and strongly disapprove has to be a good chunk of people to get that number that high. What I'm hoping is that number captures both people who think the felon has gone too far and also not gone far enough. That latter group I hope stays home to express their displeasure. And the strongly approve group stays home too because things are going well for them. That would leave the people who strongly disagree as the reason for their disapproval to vote. And that's possibly enough to flip a bunch of seats and gain Democrats control of Congress.

  2. Comment by suzeli.

    Won't just be gerrymandering. Add to that a heaping helping of vote suppression, followed by seizing ballots when the results don't match trump's fantasy, up to and including the GOP Speaker refusing to seat Democrats who won unexpectedly. There's far too much corruption going on now to let a Democratic congress spoil everything.

    • Reply by BladeRunner550.

      Don't be Glum...

      Image of the character Glum from the mid-century children's cartoon Gulliver's Travels.

    • Reply by suzeli.

      So you're saying trump and his pet GOP won't try to break every rule in the book to stay in power?

  3. Comment by narayanlion.

    🤮🤮🤮 dkos staff powerless in the face of their trmp image fetish - can't stop, WON'T stop plastering the site with orange slime 🤮🤮🤮

  4. Comment by BenBanks82.

    If Dems can make State Legislative gains anything like those of 2018 and 2022, we will be able to fix our gerrymandering problem after the midterms.

  5. Comment by giovannigiorgio.

    Over 80% of Republicans still approve in some form. Just sayin'.

    The way we get these fucking fascists out is to steam roll them and show the fuck up.

  6. Comment by azureblue.

    nor out of supporting and protecting a child rapist. But they will, to the very end.

  7. Comment by Wynter.

    I feel it's less a "victory lap" and more gaslighting the voters to give them the illusion that they have a chance of winning in the midterms. Nothing really has changed. Enthusiasm on the right hasn't increased and Trump is still the anvil on each of their races that he ever was. And the redistricting gerrymanders are proving to be very risky as they have to lower the ratio of R's to D's to create new diluted districts. And the closer the ratio the higher the probability of the Trump Anvil crushing the Republican turnout. And that could make a Blue wave into a decidedly lethal Blue tsunami.

    Sucks to be them... Amirite?

  8. Comment by DrZ55.

    Polls published this morning shows Trump's popularity sinking like a stone. Even worse for Trump is the fact that most economists think the worst of his inflationary spiral is still to come! Inflation will get way worse over the next 6 months. I believe we will win the Senate easily. BTW, what ever happened to the Epstein files?

    • Reply by thanxamillion.

      What happened to the Epstein Files? Trump is flushing like mad but those damned WOKE toilets aren’t worth 💩. 15, 20, hell 1000 flushes and they overflow, getting the boxes of classified documents all wet and gooshy! 🤬

  9. Comment by PragmaticDem.

    "The only bright spot for Republicans is that this poll was taken in May, six months from Election Day."

    I look at this as another bad spot for Republicans--that means there are six more months for things to get even worse (which will no doubt happen) and for his poll numbers to drop even further.

    • Reply by BenBanks82.

      Election polls most often move further towards the opposition during midterm election years. This one has followed the pattern so far.

      A lot of people seem to assume that the midterm experience is that the public turns against the President virtually the day after he takes office, at least temporarily. Not so. It takes just enough time to convince you that it's different this time.

    • Reply by Wynter.

      Punxsutawney Trump is seeing his shadow on the economy which means six more months of higher inflation.

  10. Comment by geekrizzy72.

    And Dems should start immediately campaign upon an anti-gerrymandering bill that does not allow politicians to choose their own voters. independent non-partisan commissions.

    • Reply by Simnsays.

      Every candidate's stand on jerrymandering will be one of my most important issues (along with climate issues). Jerrymandering is a slap in the face to all voters.

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