Justin Wolfers On The Poison Pill In Trump's Economy
Justin Wolfers On The Poison Pill In Trump's Economy
Molly Jong-Fast and economist Justin Wolfers use Met Gala banter as a springboard into a sober discussion of the economy, arguing that the latest jobs report looks weaker in isolation but more stable when viewed alongside a flattening unemployment rate and slower population growth from reduced immigration. Wolfers says he’s “holding his breath” because headline data can be noisy and the broader environment—war, trade conflict, and political instability—can quickly overwhelm otherwise decent indicators, even as he insists official statistics like BLS unemployment figures remain trustworthy despite a fractured information ecosystem. They then dissect claims about the “cost of the war,” with Wolfers explaining that figures like $25 billion capture only narrow, upfront military expenses while the true economic burden shows up in much larger, harder-to-measure channels such as inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, lower output and jobs from heightened geopolitical risk, stock market declines, and higher long-term defense spending—costs that can reach hundreds of billions or even trillions. He adds a personal dimension, describing the psychological and moral damage of normalized threats and coarsened rhetoric, and closes by recommending that people looking for real-time signals about escalating conflict focus less on official spin and more on market-based indicators like oil futures.
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Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast on YouTube
Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast
Transcript
Follow along using the transcript.
0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome, welcome, Justin. Speaker 1: Molly! Speaker 1: So, uh, it is the first Monday in May.0:09
9 seconds
Speaker
1: No, I'm just kidding. Speaker 1: That's the Met Gala. Speaker 2: I'm
glad you thought I would understand a Met Gala reference. Speaker 1: I
feel profoundly flattered.0:17
17 seconds
Speaker
1: Yeah, known to, known, it's a crossover event. Speaker 2: I actually
turned up, I don't know if you saw me in my lamb chop tuxedo. Speaker
2: Just sewed a lot of lamb chops together.0:26
26 seconds
Speaker
1: That's right. Speaker 1: All right. Speaker 1: So talk to me about
what this is. Speaker 1: We got some jobs reports coming in. Speaker 1:
We got the jobs report.0:34
34 seconds
Speaker
1: Those numbers were not bad numbers. Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty
good, isn't it? Speaker 2: So the jobs report came in with 115,000 jobs
created this month.0:44
44 seconds
Speaker
2: You should never look at one number. Speaker 2: What I like to do is
take an average over the past few months. Speaker 2: If you look over
the past few months, we're creating about 50,000 jobs a month.0:52
52 seconds
Speaker
2: That's not as many as your listeners are used to hearing. Speaker 2:
But here's the encouraging thing. Speaker 2: the unemployment rate has
gone from slowly drifting up to maybe flat.1:01
1 minute, 1 second
Speaker
2: And so the thing to understand here is the decrease in immigration
Speaker 2: has led to virtually no population growth in the United
States.1:10
1 minute, 10 seconds
Speaker 1: And previously... Speaker 1: That sounds bad.1:13
1 minute, 13 seconds
Speaker
2: That's a really good question that I'm going to take as a separate
question Speaker 2: because it's so deep. Speaker 2: But that population
growth, well, what it means is employers are not,1:23
1 minute, 23 seconds
Speaker
2: You know, if you open a new store, one of the sources of new
customers was new human beings. Speaker 2: We don't have as many new
human beings. Speaker 2: But it also then means we don't need to create
as many jobs.1:32
1 minute, 32 seconds
Speaker
2: And so while the jobs number looks bad, the thing to keep your eye
on is the unemployment rate. Speaker 2: It's roughly flat. Speaker 2: So
things are not amazing.1:41
1 minute, 41 seconds
Speaker
2: Things are not terrible. Speaker 2: And I am still holding my
breath. Speaker 1: Why are you still holding your breath? Speaker 2:
Because I worry about people.1:49
1 minute, 49 seconds
Speaker
2: I want people to have rich, full, successful lives full of dignity
and getting to do things they love and provide for those they love.1:58
1 minute, 58 seconds
Speaker
2: I want them to find people and things and passions they love.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's the macro. Speaker 1: But why are you still
holding your breath on the micro?2:08
2 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker
2: Oh, on the economy? Speaker 1: Yes. Speaker 2: On everything?
Speaker 2: We're in the middle of a war. Speaker 2: There's not a long
history of wars being good for humanity.2:16
2 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker
2: Right. Speaker 2: We're in the middle of a trade war. Speaker 2:
It's not a long history of those being good for economies.2:26
2 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker
2: And without wanting to be partisan, I have a sense that you might be
a little partisan. Speaker 2: No, I don't have great faith in the
administration.2:36
2 minutes, 36 seconds
Speaker 2: And so we're bumped from crisis to crisis, which means when the data says, hey, things may not be so bad.2:45
2 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker
2: I remember that data are noisy and sometimes you feel reassured
today and then the floor falls out underneath you again tomorrow.2:53
2 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker
2: And in a world in which we've seen the president start a trade war,
try to fire the Fed chief and undermine central bank independence,3:03
3 minutes, 3 seconds
Speaker
2: in which we've seen a movement try to undermine an election, in
which we've started a war war without congressional approval.3:11
3 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker 2: I just don't know what comes next. Speaker 2: And so, yeah, I'm holding my breath.3:16
3 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 1: Talk about unemployment because it seems like unemployment, those numbers, they can go down. Speaker 1: They can.3:24
3 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker
1: But it can also be people not looking for a job, right? Speaker 2:
Yeah. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: Let me actually start with the most
important thing. Speaker 2: I was very surprised this morning, but it's
the state of the world.3:33
3 minutes, 33 seconds
Speaker
2: I saw many, many liberals on social media saying, well, this
happened in the numbers. Speaker 2: Do you believe the numbers?3:40
3 minutes, 40 seconds
Speaker
2: And I know you and I have talked about this before, but I want to
remind people that the unemployment numbers are still utterly plausible.3:49
3 minutes, 49 seconds
Speaker
2: Right. Speaker 2: By which I mean I know a lot of people on the
inside who are collecting these numbers and they're using serious,
scientific, honest approaches to measurement and there is no direct
White House intervention.4:02
4 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker
1: Right. Speaker 1: I know this is something we've talked about
before, but you could understand why people Speaker 1: would feel that
way because Donald Trump did fire the head of the Bureau of Labor and
Statistics.4:15
4 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker
2: And also not just that, which is the man is a firehose of lies,
which once upon a time Speaker 2: that would have been thought to be a
partisan thing to say, and now it's literally a fact.4:24
4 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker
1: No, it is. Speaker 2: And I think there's a profound tearing of our
fabric as a result because it is, I don't want to be a conspiracy
theorist and say they meant this all along.4:38
4 minutes, 38 seconds
Speaker
2: I can tell the difference, but I spend my whole day looking at
numbers. Speaker 2: The regular folks, I've told them, you can believe
what comes out of the BLS.4:46
4 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
2: And then this afternoon, the Treasury Secretary will just say a
bunch of bullshit. Speaker 2: Or literally over the past couple of days,
we've had the energy secretary and the transportation secretary say no
one has done more to get energy prices down than Donald Trump.4:59
4 minutes, 59 seconds
Speaker 2: While standing next door gas pump charging $4.50 a gallon due to a war that the president started in the Middle East.5:07
5 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker
2: And so historically, those folks were bound by truth. Speaker 2: And
so when serious people wearing serious suits said things, they deserve
to be taken seriously.5:16
5 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 2: So when I say, so that information environment is just fractured.5:20
5 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
2: The idea that people are attached to truth is gone, which then makes
the job of regular Speaker 2: folks so much harder, which is that
person can be trusted, that person can't, that person Speaker 2: can,
that person can't.5:32
5 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: And so what I'm telling you as an insider, as someone who sort of studies this a lot,5:37
5 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker
2: is the official economic statistics can be trusted, but I'm not
telling you to believe Speaker 2: a word that any cabinet member says
anytime ever. Speaker 1: Right.5:45
5 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker 1: So the official numbers are still good, but the cabinet is just bonkers as usual.5:53
5 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker
1: Right? Speaker 1: Fair? Speaker 2: I'm an economist. Speaker 2: I do
not evaluate other people's mental health. Speaker 1: Right.6:01
6 minutes, 1 second
Speaker
1: But you can't necessarily take those numbers to the bank. Speaker 1:
Talk to us about, you wrote a piece for The Times that I wrote this
morning that was-6:12
6 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker
1: How exciting was that? Speaker 2: Did you just wake up and you were
reading New York Times and were you like, oh, no, that bloke? Speaker 1:
No, you sent it to me. Speaker 1: But also I read the opinion section.6:20
6 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
1: Did I do that? Speaker 1: Because I too write for the opinion
section. Speaker 1: Yeah, but you get paid for it. Speaker 1: To make
this about me. Speaker 2: And you're. Speaker 1: You get paid for it
too, don't you? Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, a little bit.6:29
6 minutes, 29 seconds
Speaker
2: But you're. Speaker 2: Aren't you a culture editor? Speaker 1: No,
I'm not an anything, anything. Speaker 1: I'm a writer. Speaker 1: I
just write there. Speaker 1: But I want.6:37
6 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker
1: So. Speaker 2: I want to talk about your beat because yours sounds
way cooler than mine. Speaker 1: So you did this piece. Speaker 1: I'm
just going to ignore you now.6:44
6 minutes, 44 seconds
Speaker
1: This is what happens when you're very, when you get in trouble on
this podcast, they just Speaker 1: ignore you. Speaker 1: So you wrote
this piece about the cost of the war.6:52
6 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker
1: And Pete Hegg said that this may not be, this may have like sort of
fallen through the couch Speaker 1: cushions this week.6:58
6 minutes, 58 seconds
Speaker
1: But Pete Hegg said did a video about the cost of the war that had a
really high number of Speaker 1: about $15 billion, which seems like
something you wouldn't want to advertise.7:12
7 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker
1: And in fact, it's actually probably a lot more. Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 2: Actually, so his number was 25 billion. Speaker 1: Oh, 25
billion. Speaker 1: Sorry.7:20
7 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
1: 10 billion too little. Speaker 1: I mean, why advertise? Speaker 1:
That seems like a lot of money. Speaker 1: That's 25 ballrooms. Speaker
2: I am going to, true.7:28
7 minutes, 28 seconds
Speaker
2: Wow. Speaker 2: We could have a ballroom in every pot. Speaker 1:
That's right. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 2: No, Ann Arbor doesn't
have enough good ballrooms. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 2: I was
thinking of going to a ball last night.7:37
7 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker
2: I wasn't. Speaker 1: 25 taxpayer-funded ballrooms. Speaker 1: That's
right. Speaker 2: That's a good number of ballrooms. Speaker 2: What
would you prefer though, Molly?7:46
7 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
2: One just really good war or 25 ballrooms? Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 1: So go on. Speaker 1: I would rather have the ballrooms and I
think they'd be better. Speaker 1: I think you'd make more money on the
ballrooms.7:54
7 minutes, 54 seconds
Speaker
1: You heard that here first. Speaker 2: Molly Jong-fast pro ballroom.
Speaker 1: Ballroom. Speaker 1: Yes. Speaker 1: Continue. Speaker 2:
Okay.7:59
7 minutes, 59 seconds
Speaker
2: So actually I want to pause because I think this is actually a
really, really important Speaker 2: piece of economics and Molly, I'm
going to be rude and say you got it wrong. Speaker 2: Please.8:07
8 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker
2: The most, when, okay. Speaker 2: So here's the backdrop. Speaker 2:
The human mind is almost incapable of understanding the difference
between millions, billions, and trillions.8:17
8 minutes, 17 seconds
Speaker
2: We don't encounter these numbers. Speaker 2: They're unimaginably
large. Speaker 2: Anytime, therefore, a politician uses one of those
numbers, it's because they intend to obfuscate.8:25
8 minutes, 25 seconds
Speaker
2: So what an economist does, anytime we get one of those numbers, we
realize it's uninterpretable. Speaker 2: Let's make it human. Speaker 2:
Here's a way of making it human.8:33
8 minutes, 33 seconds
Speaker
2: There are 330 million Americans, which is really good because if
every American pays $3, that adds up to a billion dollars.8:42
8 minutes, 42 seconds
Speaker 2: If the war cost $25 billion, that means it's a cost of $75 per American. Speaker 2: Right.8:48
8 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker
2: So $25 billion, I've watched my liberal friends go out and say, oh,
$25 billion, this is outrageous. Speaker 2: We could have bought 25
ballrooms.8:56
8 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: Actually, your point that it's 25 ballrooms is the point. Speaker 2: It's not that much. Speaker 2: Right.9:00
9 minutes
Speaker
2: Right. So the point I want to impress upon the audience, and here I
apologize, I'm a college Speaker 2: professor, I'm going to do the
teaching because that's what I do. Every time you hear one of these9:08
9 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 2: numbers, you have to scale it in a way that you can make sense of it. So it turns out the 259:15
9 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker 2: billion is not that much. It's also bullshit, technical term. The point of the op-ed is actually9:21
9 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker
2: to say, what question is $25 billion the answer to? And what
question do you care about? And it Speaker 2: Turns out they're
completely different.9:32
9 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker
2: $25 billion is how much we've more or less spent on bombs and moving
a few troops around Speaker 2: and stuff like that.9:39
9 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker
2: And depreciation on aircraft and a few aircraft have gone down.
Speaker 2: By the way, you might be thinking, how can we spend that much
on bombs?9:46
9 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
2: Some of our bombs are $2 million a pop, right? Speaker 2: So you
throw a few of them out there and all of a sudden you're talking real
money, right? Speaker 2: That's the sole cost of it.9:55
9 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker
2: That's all it's including. Speaker 2: So that's a little bit like
saying, what is the cost of a family dog? Speaker 2: Well, I went to the
pound and he cost $200.10:05
10 minutes, 5 seconds
Speaker
2: But the thing about a dog is he transforms your life in all sorts of
other ways, many Speaker 2: of which are expensive. Speaker 2: And I'm
dealing with expensive vet bills right now.10:13
10 minutes, 13 seconds
Speaker
2: And actually the same thing is true of war. Speaker 2: So the $25
billion is the answer to a question no one ever asked, which is how much
do we Speaker 2: spend on bombs?10:21
10 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker
2: The answer that the question I think most people care about is how
much is this damn Speaker 2: war costing us? Speaker 2: How much worse
off am I and my fellow countrymen and people around the world as a
result?10:31
10 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker
2: And that's when you have to realise this war didn't just cost us
some bombs. Speaker 2: It has transformed the global economy. Speaker 2:
It's transformed the American economy.10:39
10 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker
2: For instance, the Fed was going to cut rates before. Speaker 2: Now
it's not because of the inflation coming out of the war. Speaker 2: That
right there, by the way, I ran it through a little macroeconomic, the
Fed's macroeconomic model.10:49
10 minutes, 49 seconds
Speaker
2: It's the sort of thing I did for fun. Speaker 2: That right there is
worth $200 billion. Speaker 2: Just that effect, right?10:55
10 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: we have good estimates of the effect of geopolitical risk on the economy. It's likely11:02
11 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker 2: this rise in geopolitical risk will lead to $200 billion less output and hundreds of thousands of11:08
11 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 2: fewer jobs. We can look at what has happened to the stock market and a reasonable estimate is that11:15
11 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker
2: stocks are about 5% lower as a result of this war. You see that
because every time the president's Speaker 2: aggressive, stocks fall.
And every time he backs off, stocks rise. And if you took that
seriously,11:26
11 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker 2: that would suggest overall stocks are about 5% lower than they would otherwise be.11:30
11 minutes, 30 seconds
Speaker
2: That's $3 trillion right there. If the world has become a more
dangerous place because of Speaker 2: our geopolitical strategies, and
the president believes that it has,11:41
11 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker
2: then we have to spend more on defense. And the president believes we
do because he just put Speaker 2: forward a defence budget for next
year in which he wants to raise spending on defence from 90011:52
11 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker 2: billion to 1500 billion. So now he wants to spend 600 billion more on defence just next year.12:01
12 minutes, 1 second
Speaker
2: Right. All of these numbers are boring, but the most important thing
I want you to notice is Speaker 2: they're all many times larger than
25 billion. The point, this is the way real world economics12:13
12 minutes, 13 seconds
Speaker
2: works, messy economics in messy economic times, is any way you try
to pencil out the costs Speaker 2: of this war, you realize that the
cost is hundreds of billions and possibly trillions.12:28
12 minutes, 28 seconds
Speaker
2: So Molly, you were talking about a nice collection of ballrooms.
Speaker 2: Now I'm talking about a shit ton of ballrooms. Speaker 1:
Yeah.12:35
12 minutes, 35 seconds
Speaker
2: And then if we want to turn it into what does this mean for the
American people, for the Speaker 2: typical household, it means the cost
of this war is to be measured in thousands of dollars12:47
12 minutes, 47 seconds
Speaker 2: and maybe tens of thousands of dollars. And that hopefully gets people's attention.12:53
12 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker 1: It also, what you talk about in this piece is that it also is measured in all sorts of other metrics,13:01
13 minutes, 1 second
Speaker 1: like financial insecurity, financial instability, which means less investment.13:08
13 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker
1: Like there are metrics that you can't even really measure. Speaker
2: Right. So I'm not going to pretend that I've found a way of counting
every cost.13:16
13 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker
2: What I can tell you is every time I start looking at them, they turn
out to be hundreds of billions. Speaker 2: And the idea that Hegseth is
right at $25 billion is absurd on its face.13:24
13 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker
2: The whole thing is misdirection, bullshit and nonsense. Speaker 1:
Right. Speaker 2: And then I want to take off my economist hat. Speaker
2: Can I put on my dad hat?13:32
13 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker
2: Sure. Speaker 2: I remember the day the president tweeted that he
was going to wipe another country off the Speaker 2: face of the earth.13:39
13 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 2: And I sat down with my 13-year-old son and he was distressed. Speaker 2: I was distressed.13:45
13 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker
2: It's terrifying the idea that someone would, in our name, threaten
to wipe a civilization Speaker 2: off the face of the earth.13:54
13 minutes, 54 seconds
Speaker
1: Yeah. Speaker 2: It's inhumane. Speaker 2: It's not the qualities
I've ever taught my son. Speaker 2: I don't ever want to have to defend
it. Speaker 2: I never will.14:03
14 minutes, 3 seconds
Speaker
2: And my son is at a profound level forever changed. Speaker 2: You
can't take back the idea that humans would say that to other humans.14:11
14 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker
2: And there's a beauty about childhood and children that was
destroyed. Speaker 2: And I'm not talking really about my son. Speaker
2: I am.14:20
14 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
2: But I know that there's millions of other dads out there. Speaker 2:
And so that scene got played out in family after family all around the
country.14:26
14 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker
2: a sense of coarseness and comfort with the unimaginable. Speaker 2: I
can't pencil out a number for you on that, Molly,14:34
14 minutes, 34 seconds
Speaker 2: but I don't want to lose sight of how important that is.14:37
14 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker 1: Right now, we are sort of in this crazy moment Speaker 1: where we have the Fed is, you know, we got,14:46
14 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
1: I mean, there's a lot going on right now. Speaker 1: Best soap opera
of the year. Speaker 2: I don't even watch TV anymore. Speaker 2: I
just watch the Fed.14:55
14 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker
2: It's terrific. Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 1: And they're not going to
lower rates probably. Speaker 1: No. Speaker 1: Trump is not going to
get what he wants, I think is the net of it.15:04
15 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker
2: I think that remains unclear to be... Speaker 1: Well, he's not
going to get them to lower rates, which is what he wanted. Speaker 2: He
is going to get Handsome Kevin in.15:12
15 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker
1: Yes, he's getting Handsome Kevin in. Speaker 1: And... Speaker 1:
But Jerome Powell's staying. Speaker 2: But Jerome Powell used to be
handsome.15:22
15 minutes, 22 seconds
Speaker
2: When he announced Powell, he said that Powell was handsome, more
handsome than Janet Yellen. Speaker 2: So now we've got two handsome
blokes.15:30
15 minutes, 30 seconds
Speaker
1: What are you watching? Speaker 1: It still seems like the stock
market is exuberant, the bond market is anxious, and the gas prices
Speaker 1: are still high.15:39
15 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 1: So for now, the S&P is delighted with anything.15:46
15 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
1: But can that just keep going like that? Speaker 2: I'm just trying
to imagine what life is like living in New York. Speaker 2: Do people in
New York just walk around talking about the stock market all the time?15:55
15 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: Because most people think I'm intensely boring. Speaker 1: I mean, I read the Wall Street Journal. Speaker 1: So I.16:02
16 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker
2: Despite being a New York Times op-ed contributor. Speaker 1: I read
the Journal of the FT, The Economist. Speaker 1: So I know what's
happening.16:11
16 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker
2: You were remarkably well read. Speaker 1: Well, that's kind of my
job. Speaker 1: So I. Speaker 1: So. Speaker 2: You're going to tell us
about your undergraduate transcript too? Speaker 1: I didn't go to
college.16:20
16 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
1: I didn't go to college. Speaker 1: No, I didn't go to college.
Speaker 1: I have nothing. Speaker 1: Did not go to college. Speaker 2:
Is that true? Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: I have a master's.16:27
16 minutes, 27 seconds
Speaker
1: I have an MFA from Bennington. Speaker 2: Oh, I didn't go to
college, but I have a master's degree. Speaker 2: All right. Speaker 1:
Yeah, but it's a master's of fine arts.16:35
16 minutes, 35 seconds
Speaker
1: I've never done like a math class. Speaker 1: I wouldn't even know
how to do it. Speaker 1: So, but anyway, what do you, Jesse is getting
really irritated by our banter.16:44
16 minutes, 44 seconds
Speaker
1: So like, it just feels like we're in a very precarious moment.
Speaker 1: And you said this earlier in this interview. Speaker 2: My
breath. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: I am holding my
breath.16:52
16 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker
1: What are the sort of indicators that you're looking at? Speaker 1:
Like Trump is clearly trying to get gas prices lower. Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 1: That is not going to happen. Speaker 1: Yeah.17:00
17 minutes
Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 2: Okay. Speaker 2: So I am holding my breath. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 2: Every day I do.17:07
17 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker
2: And the weird thing, by the way, is I remember all of three years
ago, I would do an interview Speaker 2: or a podcast and I could just
walk in and know it cold.17:15
17 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker
2: And today I have to check what's going on in the last 15 seconds.
Speaker 2: Because we might have accidentally bombed another country.
Speaker 1: That's a Trump thing, yeah.17:24
17 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker 2: So I think the overwhelmingly most important economic issue right now is the war in Iran.17:31
17 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker
2: It's also incredibly difficult to track in any standard sense.
Speaker 2: The president announces something, the Iranian leadership
announces something else.17:41
17 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker
2: And there was a time I knew which one of those two was the truth
teller. Speaker 2: And that is no longer true. Speaker 2: So the
president has announced success seven times.17:48
17 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker
2: the Iranians keep saying you never called. And they kind of believe
them. Like, he doesn't seem Speaker 1: like a guy who calls you back.
And there's reporting. I mean, the reporting, I was on17:57
17 minutes, 57 seconds
Speaker 1: Morning Joe with David Rhodes, and David Rhodes was talking about how the Saudis didn't know that18:04
18 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker 1: he was trying to reopen the straits because nobody told them, and that they closed the airspace18:11
18 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker
2: because they were like, what the fuck is this? It's amazing some
people don't spend their days Speaker 2: on Truth Social. Speaker 1: If
MBS were just watching Fox News,18:21
18 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker 1: you would have known.18:23
18 minutes, 23 seconds
Speaker
2: But I think that that information environment Speaker 2: means it's
very hard to track. Speaker 2: But if you care about the economy,
Speaker 2: it's the most important thing to track. Speaker 2: And so
then that means,18:31
18 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker
2: this actually means I'm going to be Speaker 2: a lot more like a New
Yorker right now, Speaker 2: which is I do follow financial markets
closely. Speaker 2: And it's not because I'm cheering for the stock
market.18:39
18 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker
2: It's not even that I care about the stock market. Speaker 1: You
don't even own any stocks, right? Speaker 2: I have a mutual fund.
Speaker 1: Do I have a retirement fund? Speaker 2: Do I, am I getting, I
think I have a retirement account.18:48
18 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker
1: You told, cause remember you told me you guys never owned stocks.
Speaker 1: Anyway, go on. Speaker 2: Not individual stocks, but I have a
retirement account. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 2: Wow.18:56
18 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker
2: You're trying to get me in so much trouble. Speaker 1: Well, you
just said you didn't. Speaker 1: I'm a job creator. Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: All right, go on. Speaker 2: Um, why don't I
get any respect?19:05
19 minutes, 5 seconds
Speaker
2: Um, none. Speaker 2: I'm tracking financial markets because you've
got sophisticated people betting on the future Speaker 2: of the economy
through financial markets.19:14
19 minutes, 14 seconds
Speaker
2: I'm tracking them at the same time as I'm tracking the oil market.
Speaker 2: And actually, if you want to track the oil market, you don't
track the spot price.19:20
19 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker
2: That's oil being bought and sold today because that's affected by a
lot of stuff like shipping and so on. Speaker 2: It's a really good idea
to track something like the futures price, which, by the way, is
actually remarkably easy to find online.19:32
19 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker
2: And think about that as an index of are we getting good news out of
Iran or bad news? Speaker 2: You could interpret it in more complicated
ways.19:41
19 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker
2: But if you wake up and you say, you know, you read something like
the president just announced there was some operation over the last
couple of days where apparently-19:48
19 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker
1: Operation Enduring Freedom. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: Which like
it didn't endure and it wasn't freedom. Speaker 1: It's really Operation
Ignore the Ceasefire.19:56
19 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker
2: Yeah. Speaker 2: It was Operation Press Release. Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 2: He said, I've got an operation and here's the deal. Speaker
2: Everyone can go through the Strait of Amois.20:04
20 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker
2: Yeah. Speaker 2: When I haven't told the Iranians and we're not
going to escort you, but you can go through because I told you. Speaker
2: And this will surprise you.20:12
20 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker 2: Everyone said in return, no. Speaker 2: So Operation Enduring Freedom literally achieved nothing.20:18
20 minutes, 18 seconds
Speaker
2: But for the audience, the important point here is if you wanted to
assess that for yourself, the way to have done that was to look at oil
price futures. Speaker 2: Right.20:26
20 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker
2: Because when they didn't improve, that's when you can tell people
betting on the outcome of this war think the president's just saying
nonsense rather than doing something.20:36
20 minutes, 36 seconds
Speaker
2: Now, there may be some moment where it's operation really enduring
freedom where he does something. Speaker 2: And the easiest way to tell
is going to be by tracking what happens to financial markets.20:46
20 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker
2: They're not going to get it perfect, but it's less bad than the
alternative of listening to the administration. Speaker 1: Justin
Wolfers, will you come back?20:56
20 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: Always. Speaker 2: Can't wait.
Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast
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