Sunday, May 10, 2026

Justin Wolfers On The Poison Pill In Trump's Economy

Justin Wolfers On The Poison Pill In Trump's Economy


Justin Wolfers On The Poison Pill In Trump's Economy

26,713 views May 8, 2026 Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast on YouTube
Molly Jong-Fast and economist Justin Wolfers use Met Gala banter as a springboard into a sober discussion of the economy, arguing that the latest jobs report looks weaker in isolation but more stable when viewed alongside a flattening unemployment rate and slower population growth from reduced immigration. Wolfers says he’s “holding his breath” because headline data can be noisy and the broader environment—war, trade conflict, and political instability—can quickly overwhelm otherwise decent indicators, even as he insists official statistics like BLS unemployment figures remain trustworthy despite a fractured information ecosystem. They then dissect claims about the “cost of the war,” with Wolfers explaining that figures like $25 billion capture only narrow, upfront military expenses while the true economic burden shows up in much larger, harder-to-measure channels such as inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, lower output and jobs from heightened geopolitical risk, stock market declines, and higher long-term defense spending—costs that can reach hundreds of billions or even trillions. He adds a personal dimension, describing the psychological and moral damage of normalized threats and coarsened rhetoric, and closes by recommending that people looking for real-time signals about escalating conflict focus less on official spin and more on market-based indicators like oil futures. Subscribe to Fast Politics and listen 4x a week for interviews just like this on your favorite podcast app: https://episodes.fm/1645614328
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Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast on YouTube
Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast

Follow along using the transcript.

Speaker 1: Welcome, welcome, Justin. Speaker 1: Molly! Speaker 1: So, uh, it is the first Monday in May.
9 seconds
Speaker 1: No, I'm just kidding. Speaker 1: That's the Met Gala. Speaker 2: I'm glad you thought I would understand a Met Gala reference. Speaker 1: I feel profoundly flattered.
17 seconds
Speaker 1: Yeah, known to, known, it's a crossover event. Speaker 2: I actually turned up, I don't know if you saw me in my lamb chop tuxedo. Speaker 2: Just sewed a lot of lamb chops together.
26 seconds
Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 1: All right. Speaker 1: So talk to me about what this is. Speaker 1: We got some jobs reports coming in. Speaker 1: We got the jobs report.
34 seconds
Speaker 1: Those numbers were not bad numbers. Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty good, isn't it? Speaker 2: So the jobs report came in with 115,000 jobs created this month.
44 seconds
Speaker 2: You should never look at one number. Speaker 2: What I like to do is take an average over the past few months. Speaker 2: If you look over the past few months, we're creating about 50,000 jobs a month.
52 seconds
Speaker 2: That's not as many as your listeners are used to hearing. Speaker 2: But here's the encouraging thing. Speaker 2: the unemployment rate has gone from slowly drifting up to maybe flat.
1 minute, 1 second
Speaker 2: And so the thing to understand here is the decrease in immigration Speaker 2: has led to virtually no population growth in the United States.
1 minute, 10 seconds
Speaker 1: And previously... Speaker 1: That sounds bad.
1 minute, 13 seconds
Speaker 2: That's a really good question that I'm going to take as a separate question Speaker 2: because it's so deep. Speaker 2: But that population growth, well, what it means is employers are not,
1 minute, 23 seconds
Speaker 2: You know, if you open a new store, one of the sources of new customers was new human beings. Speaker 2: We don't have as many new human beings. Speaker 2: But it also then means we don't need to create as many jobs.
1 minute, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: And so while the jobs number looks bad, the thing to keep your eye on is the unemployment rate. Speaker 2: It's roughly flat. Speaker 2: So things are not amazing.
1 minute, 41 seconds
Speaker 2: Things are not terrible. Speaker 2: And I am still holding my breath. Speaker 1: Why are you still holding your breath? Speaker 2: Because I worry about people.
1 minute, 49 seconds
Speaker 2: I want people to have rich, full, successful lives full of dignity and getting to do things they love and provide for those they love.
1 minute, 58 seconds
Speaker 2: I want them to find people and things and passions they love. Speaker 1: Okay, that's the macro. Speaker 1: But why are you still holding your breath on the micro?
2 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 2: Oh, on the economy? Speaker 1: Yes. Speaker 2: On everything? Speaker 2: We're in the middle of a war. Speaker 2: There's not a long history of wars being good for humanity.
2 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 2: Right. Speaker 2: We're in the middle of a trade war. Speaker 2: It's not a long history of those being good for economies.
2 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker 2: And without wanting to be partisan, I have a sense that you might be a little partisan. Speaker 2: No, I don't have great faith in the administration.
2 minutes, 36 seconds
Speaker 2: And so we're bumped from crisis to crisis, which means when the data says, hey, things may not be so bad.
2 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker 2: I remember that data are noisy and sometimes you feel reassured today and then the floor falls out underneath you again tomorrow.
2 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker 2: And in a world in which we've seen the president start a trade war, try to fire the Fed chief and undermine central bank independence,
3 minutes, 3 seconds
Speaker 2: in which we've seen a movement try to undermine an election, in which we've started a war war without congressional approval.
3 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker 2: I just don't know what comes next. Speaker 2: And so, yeah, I'm holding my breath.
3 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 1: Talk about unemployment because it seems like unemployment, those numbers, they can go down. Speaker 1: They can.
3 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker 1: But it can also be people not looking for a job, right? Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: Let me actually start with the most important thing. Speaker 2: I was very surprised this morning, but it's the state of the world.
3 minutes, 33 seconds
Speaker 2: I saw many, many liberals on social media saying, well, this happened in the numbers. Speaker 2: Do you believe the numbers?
3 minutes, 40 seconds
Speaker 2: And I know you and I have talked about this before, but I want to remind people that the unemployment numbers are still utterly plausible.
3 minutes, 49 seconds
Speaker 2: Right. Speaker 2: By which I mean I know a lot of people on the inside who are collecting these numbers and they're using serious, scientific, honest approaches to measurement and there is no direct White House intervention.
4 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 1: I know this is something we've talked about before, but you could understand why people Speaker 1: would feel that way because Donald Trump did fire the head of the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
4 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker 2: And also not just that, which is the man is a firehose of lies, which once upon a time Speaker 2: that would have been thought to be a partisan thing to say, and now it's literally a fact.
4 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker 1: No, it is. Speaker 2: And I think there's a profound tearing of our fabric as a result because it is, I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist and say they meant this all along.
4 minutes, 38 seconds
Speaker 2: I can tell the difference, but I spend my whole day looking at numbers. Speaker 2: The regular folks, I've told them, you can believe what comes out of the BLS.
4 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 2: And then this afternoon, the Treasury Secretary will just say a bunch of bullshit. Speaker 2: Or literally over the past couple of days, we've had the energy secretary and the transportation secretary say no one has done more to get energy prices down than Donald Trump.
4 minutes, 59 seconds
Speaker 2: While standing next door gas pump charging $4.50 a gallon due to a war that the president started in the Middle East.
5 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker 2: And so historically, those folks were bound by truth. Speaker 2: And so when serious people wearing serious suits said things, they deserve to be taken seriously.
5 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 2: So when I say, so that information environment is just fractured.
5 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 2: The idea that people are attached to truth is gone, which then makes the job of regular Speaker 2: folks so much harder, which is that person can be trusted, that person can't, that person Speaker 2: can, that person can't.
5 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: And so what I'm telling you as an insider, as someone who sort of studies this a lot,
5 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker 2: is the official economic statistics can be trusted, but I'm not telling you to believe Speaker 2: a word that any cabinet member says anytime ever. Speaker 1: Right.
5 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker 1: So the official numbers are still good, but the cabinet is just bonkers as usual.
5 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker 1: Right? Speaker 1: Fair? Speaker 2: I'm an economist. Speaker 2: I do not evaluate other people's mental health. Speaker 1: Right.
6 minutes, 1 second
Speaker 1: But you can't necessarily take those numbers to the bank. Speaker 1: Talk to us about, you wrote a piece for The Times that I wrote this morning that was-
6 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker 1: How exciting was that? Speaker 2: Did you just wake up and you were reading New York Times and were you like, oh, no, that bloke? Speaker 1: No, you sent it to me. Speaker 1: But also I read the opinion section.
6 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 1: Did I do that? Speaker 1: Because I too write for the opinion section. Speaker 1: Yeah, but you get paid for it. Speaker 1: To make this about me. Speaker 2: And you're. Speaker 1: You get paid for it too, don't you? Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, a little bit.
6 minutes, 29 seconds
Speaker 2: But you're. Speaker 2: Aren't you a culture editor? Speaker 1: No, I'm not an anything, anything. Speaker 1: I'm a writer. Speaker 1: I just write there. Speaker 1: But I want.
6 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker 1: So. Speaker 2: I want to talk about your beat because yours sounds way cooler than mine. Speaker 1: So you did this piece. Speaker 1: I'm just going to ignore you now.
6 minutes, 44 seconds
Speaker 1: This is what happens when you're very, when you get in trouble on this podcast, they just Speaker 1: ignore you. Speaker 1: So you wrote this piece about the cost of the war.
6 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker 1: And Pete Hegg said that this may not be, this may have like sort of fallen through the couch Speaker 1: cushions this week.
6 minutes, 58 seconds
Speaker 1: But Pete Hegg said did a video about the cost of the war that had a really high number of Speaker 1: about $15 billion, which seems like something you wouldn't want to advertise.
7 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker 1: And in fact, it's actually probably a lot more. Speaker 2: Right. Speaker 2: Actually, so his number was 25 billion. Speaker 1: Oh, 25 billion. Speaker 1: Sorry.
7 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 1: 10 billion too little. Speaker 1: I mean, why advertise? Speaker 1: That seems like a lot of money. Speaker 1: That's 25 ballrooms. Speaker 2: I am going to, true.
7 minutes, 28 seconds
Speaker 2: Wow. Speaker 2: We could have a ballroom in every pot. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 2: No, Ann Arbor doesn't have enough good ballrooms. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 2: I was thinking of going to a ball last night.
7 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker 2: I wasn't. Speaker 1: 25 taxpayer-funded ballrooms. Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 2: That's a good number of ballrooms. Speaker 2: What would you prefer though, Molly?
7 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 2: One just really good war or 25 ballrooms? Speaker 1: That's right. Speaker 1: So go on. Speaker 1: I would rather have the ballrooms and I think they'd be better. Speaker 1: I think you'd make more money on the ballrooms.
7 minutes, 54 seconds
Speaker 1: You heard that here first. Speaker 2: Molly Jong-fast pro ballroom. Speaker 1: Ballroom. Speaker 1: Yes. Speaker 1: Continue. Speaker 2: Okay.
7 minutes, 59 seconds
Speaker 2: So actually I want to pause because I think this is actually a really, really important Speaker 2: piece of economics and Molly, I'm going to be rude and say you got it wrong. Speaker 2: Please.
8 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker 2: The most, when, okay. Speaker 2: So here's the backdrop. Speaker 2: The human mind is almost incapable of understanding the difference between millions, billions, and trillions.
8 minutes, 17 seconds
Speaker 2: We don't encounter these numbers. Speaker 2: They're unimaginably large. Speaker 2: Anytime, therefore, a politician uses one of those numbers, it's because they intend to obfuscate.
8 minutes, 25 seconds
Speaker 2: So what an economist does, anytime we get one of those numbers, we realize it's uninterpretable. Speaker 2: Let's make it human. Speaker 2: Here's a way of making it human.
8 minutes, 33 seconds
Speaker 2: There are 330 million Americans, which is really good because if every American pays $3, that adds up to a billion dollars.
8 minutes, 42 seconds
Speaker 2: If the war cost $25 billion, that means it's a cost of $75 per American. Speaker 2: Right.
8 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker 2: So $25 billion, I've watched my liberal friends go out and say, oh, $25 billion, this is outrageous. Speaker 2: We could have bought 25 ballrooms.
8 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: Actually, your point that it's 25 ballrooms is the point. Speaker 2: It's not that much. Speaker 2: Right.
9 minutes
Speaker 2: Right. So the point I want to impress upon the audience, and here I apologize, I'm a college Speaker 2: professor, I'm going to do the teaching because that's what I do. Every time you hear one of these
9 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 2: numbers, you have to scale it in a way that you can make sense of it. So it turns out the 25
9 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker 2: billion is not that much. It's also bullshit, technical term. The point of the op-ed is actually
9 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker 2: to say, what question is $25 billion the answer to? And what question do you care about? And it Speaker 2: Turns out they're completely different.
9 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: $25 billion is how much we've more or less spent on bombs and moving a few troops around Speaker 2: and stuff like that.
9 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 2: And depreciation on aircraft and a few aircraft have gone down. Speaker 2: By the way, you might be thinking, how can we spend that much on bombs?
9 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 2: Some of our bombs are $2 million a pop, right? Speaker 2: So you throw a few of them out there and all of a sudden you're talking real money, right? Speaker 2: That's the sole cost of it.
9 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: That's all it's including. Speaker 2: So that's a little bit like saying, what is the cost of a family dog? Speaker 2: Well, I went to the pound and he cost $200.
10 minutes, 5 seconds
Speaker 2: But the thing about a dog is he transforms your life in all sorts of other ways, many Speaker 2: of which are expensive. Speaker 2: And I'm dealing with expensive vet bills right now.
10 minutes, 13 seconds
Speaker 2: And actually the same thing is true of war. Speaker 2: So the $25 billion is the answer to a question no one ever asked, which is how much do we Speaker 2: spend on bombs?
10 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker 2: The answer that the question I think most people care about is how much is this damn Speaker 2: war costing us? Speaker 2: How much worse off am I and my fellow countrymen and people around the world as a result?
10 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker 2: And that's when you have to realise this war didn't just cost us some bombs. Speaker 2: It has transformed the global economy. Speaker 2: It's transformed the American economy.
10 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 2: For instance, the Fed was going to cut rates before. Speaker 2: Now it's not because of the inflation coming out of the war. Speaker 2: That right there, by the way, I ran it through a little macroeconomic, the Fed's macroeconomic model.
10 minutes, 49 seconds
Speaker 2: It's the sort of thing I did for fun. Speaker 2: That right there is worth $200 billion. Speaker 2: Just that effect, right?
10 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: we have good estimates of the effect of geopolitical risk on the economy. It's likely
11 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker 2: this rise in geopolitical risk will lead to $200 billion less output and hundreds of thousands of
11 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 2: fewer jobs. We can look at what has happened to the stock market and a reasonable estimate is that
11 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker 2: stocks are about 5% lower as a result of this war. You see that because every time the president's Speaker 2: aggressive, stocks fall. And every time he backs off, stocks rise. And if you took that seriously,
11 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker 2: that would suggest overall stocks are about 5% lower than they would otherwise be.
11 minutes, 30 seconds
Speaker 2: That's $3 trillion right there. If the world has become a more dangerous place because of Speaker 2: our geopolitical strategies, and the president believes that it has,
11 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker 2: then we have to spend more on defense. And the president believes we do because he just put Speaker 2: forward a defence budget for next year in which he wants to raise spending on defence from 900
11 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker 2: billion to 1500 billion. So now he wants to spend 600 billion more on defence just next year.
12 minutes, 1 second
Speaker 2: Right. All of these numbers are boring, but the most important thing I want you to notice is Speaker 2: they're all many times larger than 25 billion. The point, this is the way real world economics
12 minutes, 13 seconds
Speaker 2: works, messy economics in messy economic times, is any way you try to pencil out the costs Speaker 2: of this war, you realize that the cost is hundreds of billions and possibly trillions.
12 minutes, 28 seconds
Speaker 2: So Molly, you were talking about a nice collection of ballrooms. Speaker 2: Now I'm talking about a shit ton of ballrooms. Speaker 1: Yeah.
12 minutes, 35 seconds
Speaker 2: And then if we want to turn it into what does this mean for the American people, for the Speaker 2: typical household, it means the cost of this war is to be measured in thousands of dollars
12 minutes, 47 seconds
Speaker 2: and maybe tens of thousands of dollars. And that hopefully gets people's attention.
12 minutes, 53 seconds
Speaker 1: It also, what you talk about in this piece is that it also is measured in all sorts of other metrics,
13 minutes, 1 second
Speaker 1: like financial insecurity, financial instability, which means less investment.
13 minutes, 8 seconds
Speaker 1: Like there are metrics that you can't even really measure. Speaker 2: Right. So I'm not going to pretend that I've found a way of counting every cost.
13 minutes, 16 seconds
Speaker 2: What I can tell you is every time I start looking at them, they turn out to be hundreds of billions. Speaker 2: And the idea that Hegseth is right at $25 billion is absurd on its face.
13 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker 2: The whole thing is misdirection, bullshit and nonsense. Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 2: And then I want to take off my economist hat. Speaker 2: Can I put on my dad hat?
13 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: Sure. Speaker 2: I remember the day the president tweeted that he was going to wipe another country off the Speaker 2: face of the earth.
13 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 2: And I sat down with my 13-year-old son and he was distressed. Speaker 2: I was distressed.
13 minutes, 45 seconds
Speaker 2: It's terrifying the idea that someone would, in our name, threaten to wipe a civilization Speaker 2: off the face of the earth.
13 minutes, 54 seconds
Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 2: It's inhumane. Speaker 2: It's not the qualities I've ever taught my son. Speaker 2: I don't ever want to have to defend it. Speaker 2: I never will.
14 minutes, 3 seconds
Speaker 2: And my son is at a profound level forever changed. Speaker 2: You can't take back the idea that humans would say that to other humans.
14 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker 2: And there's a beauty about childhood and children that was destroyed. Speaker 2: And I'm not talking really about my son. Speaker 2: I am.
14 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 2: But I know that there's millions of other dads out there. Speaker 2: And so that scene got played out in family after family all around the country.
14 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker 2: a sense of coarseness and comfort with the unimaginable. Speaker 2: I can't pencil out a number for you on that, Molly,
14 minutes, 34 seconds
Speaker 2: but I don't want to lose sight of how important that is.
14 minutes, 37 seconds
Speaker 1: Right now, we are sort of in this crazy moment Speaker 1: where we have the Fed is, you know, we got,
14 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot going on right now. Speaker 1: Best soap opera of the year. Speaker 2: I don't even watch TV anymore. Speaker 2: I just watch the Fed.
14 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: It's terrific. Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 1: And they're not going to lower rates probably. Speaker 1: No. Speaker 1: Trump is not going to get what he wants, I think is the net of it.
15 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker 2: I think that remains unclear to be... Speaker 1: Well, he's not going to get them to lower rates, which is what he wanted. Speaker 2: He is going to get Handsome Kevin in.
15 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker 1: Yes, he's getting Handsome Kevin in. Speaker 1: And... Speaker 1: But Jerome Powell's staying. Speaker 2: But Jerome Powell used to be handsome.
15 minutes, 22 seconds
Speaker 2: When he announced Powell, he said that Powell was handsome, more handsome than Janet Yellen. Speaker 2: So now we've got two handsome blokes.
15 minutes, 30 seconds
Speaker 1: What are you watching? Speaker 1: It still seems like the stock market is exuberant, the bond market is anxious, and the gas prices Speaker 1: are still high.
15 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 1: So for now, the S&P is delighted with anything.
15 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 1: But can that just keep going like that? Speaker 2: I'm just trying to imagine what life is like living in New York. Speaker 2: Do people in New York just walk around talking about the stock market all the time?
15 minutes, 55 seconds
Speaker 2: Because most people think I'm intensely boring. Speaker 1: I mean, I read the Wall Street Journal. Speaker 1: So I.
16 minutes, 2 seconds
Speaker 2: Despite being a New York Times op-ed contributor. Speaker 1: I read the Journal of the FT, The Economist. Speaker 1: So I know what's happening.
16 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker 2: You were remarkably well read. Speaker 1: Well, that's kind of my job. Speaker 1: So I. Speaker 1: So. Speaker 2: You're going to tell us about your undergraduate transcript too? Speaker 1: I didn't go to college.
16 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 1: I didn't go to college. Speaker 1: No, I didn't go to college. Speaker 1: I have nothing. Speaker 1: Did not go to college. Speaker 2: Is that true? Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: I have a master's.
16 minutes, 27 seconds
Speaker 1: I have an MFA from Bennington. Speaker 2: Oh, I didn't go to college, but I have a master's degree. Speaker 2: All right. Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's a master's of fine arts.
16 minutes, 35 seconds
Speaker 1: I've never done like a math class. Speaker 1: I wouldn't even know how to do it. Speaker 1: So, but anyway, what do you, Jesse is getting really irritated by our banter.
16 minutes, 44 seconds
Speaker 1: So like, it just feels like we're in a very precarious moment. Speaker 1: And you said this earlier in this interview. Speaker 2: My breath. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: I am holding my breath.
16 minutes, 52 seconds
Speaker 1: What are the sort of indicators that you're looking at? Speaker 1: Like Trump is clearly trying to get gas prices lower. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: That is not going to happen. Speaker 1: Yeah.
17 minutes
Speaker 1: Right. Speaker 2: Okay. Speaker 2: So I am holding my breath. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 2: Every day I do.
17 minutes, 7 seconds
Speaker 2: And the weird thing, by the way, is I remember all of three years ago, I would do an interview Speaker 2: or a podcast and I could just walk in and know it cold.
17 minutes, 15 seconds
Speaker 2: And today I have to check what's going on in the last 15 seconds. Speaker 2: Because we might have accidentally bombed another country. Speaker 1: That's a Trump thing, yeah.
17 minutes, 24 seconds
Speaker 2: So I think the overwhelmingly most important economic issue right now is the war in Iran.
17 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker 2: It's also incredibly difficult to track in any standard sense. Speaker 2: The president announces something, the Iranian leadership announces something else.
17 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker 2: And there was a time I knew which one of those two was the truth teller. Speaker 2: And that is no longer true. Speaker 2: So the president has announced success seven times.
17 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker 2: the Iranians keep saying you never called. And they kind of believe them. Like, he doesn't seem Speaker 1: like a guy who calls you back. And there's reporting. I mean, the reporting, I was on
17 minutes, 57 seconds
Speaker 1: Morning Joe with David Rhodes, and David Rhodes was talking about how the Saudis didn't know that
18 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker 1: he was trying to reopen the straits because nobody told them, and that they closed the airspace
18 minutes, 11 seconds
Speaker 2: because they were like, what the fuck is this? It's amazing some people don't spend their days Speaker 2: on Truth Social. Speaker 1: If MBS were just watching Fox News,
18 minutes, 21 seconds
Speaker 1: you would have known.
18 minutes, 23 seconds
Speaker 2: But I think that that information environment Speaker 2: means it's very hard to track. Speaker 2: But if you care about the economy, Speaker 2: it's the most important thing to track. Speaker 2: And so then that means,
18 minutes, 31 seconds
Speaker 2: this actually means I'm going to be Speaker 2: a lot more like a New Yorker right now, Speaker 2: which is I do follow financial markets closely. Speaker 2: And it's not because I'm cheering for the stock market.
18 minutes, 39 seconds
Speaker 2: It's not even that I care about the stock market. Speaker 1: You don't even own any stocks, right? Speaker 2: I have a mutual fund. Speaker 1: Do I have a retirement fund? Speaker 2: Do I, am I getting, I think I have a retirement account.
18 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker 1: You told, cause remember you told me you guys never owned stocks. Speaker 1: Anyway, go on. Speaker 2: Not individual stocks, but I have a retirement account. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 2: Wow.
18 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: You're trying to get me in so much trouble. Speaker 1: Well, you just said you didn't. Speaker 1: I'm a job creator. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: Yeah. Speaker 1: All right, go on. Speaker 2: Um, why don't I get any respect?
19 minutes, 5 seconds
Speaker 2: Um, none. Speaker 2: I'm tracking financial markets because you've got sophisticated people betting on the future Speaker 2: of the economy through financial markets.
19 minutes, 14 seconds
Speaker 2: I'm tracking them at the same time as I'm tracking the oil market. Speaker 2: And actually, if you want to track the oil market, you don't track the spot price.
19 minutes, 20 seconds
Speaker 2: That's oil being bought and sold today because that's affected by a lot of stuff like shipping and so on. Speaker 2: It's a really good idea to track something like the futures price, which, by the way, is actually remarkably easy to find online.
19 minutes, 32 seconds
Speaker 2: And think about that as an index of are we getting good news out of Iran or bad news? Speaker 2: You could interpret it in more complicated ways.
19 minutes, 41 seconds
Speaker 2: But if you wake up and you say, you know, you read something like the president just announced there was some operation over the last couple of days where apparently-
19 minutes, 48 seconds
Speaker 1: Operation Enduring Freedom. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: Which like it didn't endure and it wasn't freedom. Speaker 1: It's really Operation Ignore the Ceasefire.
19 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: It was Operation Press Release. Speaker 2: Right. Speaker 2: He said, I've got an operation and here's the deal. Speaker 2: Everyone can go through the Strait of Amois.
20 minutes, 4 seconds
Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 2: When I haven't told the Iranians and we're not going to escort you, but you can go through because I told you. Speaker 2: And this will surprise you.
20 minutes, 12 seconds
Speaker 2: Everyone said in return, no. Speaker 2: So Operation Enduring Freedom literally achieved nothing.
20 minutes, 18 seconds
Speaker 2: But for the audience, the important point here is if you wanted to assess that for yourself, the way to have done that was to look at oil price futures. Speaker 2: Right.
20 minutes, 26 seconds
Speaker 2: Because when they didn't improve, that's when you can tell people betting on the outcome of this war think the president's just saying nonsense rather than doing something.
20 minutes, 36 seconds
Speaker 2: Now, there may be some moment where it's operation really enduring freedom where he does something. Speaker 2: And the easiest way to tell is going to be by tracking what happens to financial markets.
20 minutes, 46 seconds
Speaker 2: They're not going to get it perfect, but it's less bad than the alternative of listening to the administration. Speaker 1: Justin Wolfers, will you come back?
20 minutes, 56 seconds
Speaker 2: Always. Speaker 2: Can't wait.

 

Fast Politics w/ Molly Jong-Fast

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