‘The midterms won’t save us’: Analyst on what Dems need to prioritize ahead of midterm elections
The redistricting wars have shattered the House map, with less than 100 days to go before the midterms. MS NOW Political Analyst Basil Smikle and Hofstra University Law Professor James Sample join The Weekend: Primetime to discuss the consequences of the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling striking down the state’s voter-backed redistricting plan, the intensifying redistricting push by red states, and what it all means for the midterms and beyond.
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2 seconds
THERE ARE LESS THAN 100 100 days to go before Americans head to the polls and cast their votes in the midterm elections.8 seconds
And yet the legal and political ground beneath us is shifting in real time.13 seconds
The
past week and a half shattered the house map and with it Democrats once
clear path to retaking the lower chamber Republicans are22 seconds
emerging
with a sizable structural advantage as two blockbuster court rulings
allow them to carve out roughly 10 more favorable House seats.31 seconds
First, it was the Supreme Court hollowing out the Voting Rights Act,35 seconds
triggering outrage in Louisiana and across the South,38 seconds
opening
the door for Republicans there to erase at least one majority black
congressional DISTRICT A STATE THAT IS ROUGHLY A THIRD BLACK,45 seconds
A STATE THAT HAS ONLY EVER SENT A HANDFUL OF BLACK LEADERS TO WASHINGTON,49 seconds
D .C., AND HAD NO BLACK REPRESENTATION IN CONGRESS FROM 1877 TO THAT'S 114 YEARS.57 seconds
AND THEN THIS WEEK, VIRGINIA'S TOP COURT STRUCK DOWN A VOTER-APPROVED REDISTRICTING PLAN.1 minute, 3 seconds
THAT PLAN WOULD HAVE GIVEN DEMOCRATS FOUR MORE SEATS IN CONGRESS.1 minute, 6 seconds
THE
NEW YORK TIMES REPORTS THE REPUBLICANS WERE QUICK TO CELEBRATE THE
VIRGINIA DECISION WITH ONE OF SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON'S SENIOR POLITICAL
AIDS INTERRUPTING A MEETING IN TEXAS TO BREAK THE NEWS.1 minute, 16 seconds
AND JOHNSON, LATER HIMSELF CELEBRATING ON THE phone with Virginia's Republican former governor Glenn Youngkin.1 minute, 23 seconds
For now, Democrats are still favored to win the House.1 minute, 27 seconds
But
all of this raises unsettling questions about what the redistricting
wars have wrought for the midterms and for our democracy long term.1 minute, 35 seconds
Two legal decisions, immeasurable consequences for who holds the power. Joining us now to unpack all of this.1 minute, 44 seconds
Basil Schmeichel, MSNOW political analyst and professor of practice at the Columbia University School of Professional Studies,1 minute, 50 seconds
and James Sample, professor of law at Hofstra University and author of The Substack, Who Decides Who Decides?1 minute, 58 seconds
James, Basil, it's great to have both of you guys with us tonight.2 minutes, 1 second
So James, you and I had a conversation the other day about all of this as I was processing these rulings in real time.2 minutes, 7 seconds
You do a very good job of bringing us back down to earth. You called the Virginia decision a,2 minutes, 14 seconds
quote, defensive or defensible ruling an indefensible landscape. Break that down for me.2 minutes, 21 seconds
What I mean by that ANTONIA IS THAT THE RULING IN VIRGINIA IS DEFENSIBLE AND FROM THE VERY BEGINNING,2 minutes, 29 seconds
AS FAR BACK AS OCTOBER,2 minutes, 30 seconds
AS
FAR BACK AS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN THE DISTRICT COURT IN VIRGINIA
came up with seven grounds on which the district court found the process
problematic.2 minutes, 39 seconds
I said that this one ground,2 minutes, 42 seconds
the
ground on which it was ultimately held to be unconstitutional under the
state constitution of Virginia, was at the very released a credible,2 minutes, 49 seconds
serious, non-frivolous argument.2 minutes, 52 seconds
And
let's be clear, Virginia put in place state constitutional provisions
that were intended to safeguard and to be structural protections3 minutes, 1 second
HAVE
SOMETHING THAT MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO AMEND THEIR CONSTITUTION AS A
MATTER OF STATE CONSTITUTIONAL LAW. THEY DIDN'T PUT THAT IN PLACE FOR
THIS,3 minutes, 8 seconds
IT'S BEEN IN PLACE FOR DECADES.3 minutes, 11 seconds
AND
THE BASIC SYNOPSIS OF WHY THIS WAS HELD TO BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL UNDER
VIRGINIA LAW IS THAT IN ORDER TO AMEND THE VIRGINIA STATE CONSTITUTION,3 minutes, 21 seconds
YOU NEED TO PASS AN AMENDMENT THROUGH THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES, THROUGH THE ASSEMBLY.3 minutes, 26 seconds
THERE
NEEDS TO BE A GENERAL ELECTION FOR THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES AND THEN IT
NEEDS TO PASS AGAIN, SO YOU HAVE TWO DIFFERENT LEGISLATURES PASS THE
SAME AMENDMENT.3 minutes, 35 seconds
WHAT HAPPENED HERE IS THAT VOTERS STARTED VOTING FOR THE LEGISLATURE IN SEPTEMBER OF3 minutes, 46 seconds
IN THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES ELECTION VOTED PRIOR TO THE AMENDMENT BEING PASSED IN THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES IN LATE OCTOBER.3 minutes, 55 seconds
TO BE CLEAR, THE DECISION OF THE VIRGINIA SUPREME COURT I THINK IS A DISASTER FOR OUR DEMOCRACY.4 minutes, 1 second
IT'S
PROBABLY RIGHT ON THE LAW AND IT'S ACTUALLY A PRO-VOTER PROTECTION
DECISION. THE PROBLEM IS THE CONTEXT AGAINST WHICH IT OCCURS,4 minutes, 9 seconds
AND THE CONTEXT AGAINST WHICH IT OCCURS IS ONE IN WHICH WE ARE RACING TO THE BOTTOM,4 minutes, 14 seconds
ONE IN WHICH WE ARE BECOMING THE INVERSE OF WHAT WE SHOULD BE. THE HOUSE IS ACTUALLY BECOMING THE SENATE.4 minutes, 20 seconds
A HUNDRED YEARS AGO, THE Senate was chosen by the state legislatures.4 minutes, 24 seconds
We
are now in a place where the state legislature is effectively choosing
who gets to be in the House of Representatives in Congress.4 minutes, 32 seconds
So, Basil, can you walk us through what the overall ALL CONSEQUENCES ARE FOR DEMOCRACY.4 minutes, 37 seconds
BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE WE ARE RACING TOWARD A LANDSCAPE,4 minutes, 43 seconds
A CONTEXT IN WHICH EVEN EVEN IF DEMOCRATS WIN BIG THIS YEAR, THEY PROBABLY WIN SMALL.4 minutes, 50 seconds
AND WE MAY BE LEADING IN OR WALKING INTO A WORLD IN WHICH BASICALLY WE ARE ENSHRINING POTENTIAL MINORITY4 minutes, 58 seconds
RULE GOING FORWARD WHERE ONE SIDE CAN WIN 55 % OF THE VOTE AND STILL LOSE. I SEE IT AS A LOT MORE STARK THAN THAT, ACTUALLY.5 minutes, 6 seconds
I START BY saying that what we're seeing is the intentionality around by Republicans to make sure Obama did not have coattails.5 minutes, 16 seconds
Democrats lost a thousand state legislative seats while Obama was5 minutes, 35 seconds
next for Democrats on this issue of voting rights and redistricting.5 minutes, 38 seconds
I should say, I get nervous because there isn't a lot of room left to be able to fix this.5 minutes, 45 seconds
Number one. Number two, I said this when.5 minutes, 48 seconds
And then Texas entered the fray to try to do their redistricting.5 minutes, 52 seconds
And I said, this is going to be tantamount to an American version of apartheid because it's not just about congressional seats.6 minutes
What the congressional seat allows states to do is then redistrict state legislative seats,6 minutes, 5 seconds
city council suites, all the way down to even school board elections. Right?6 minutes, 11 seconds
So when you think about the removal of the civic opportunity, civic engagement for black people.6 minutes, 16 seconds
The
fact that the president reclassified certain jobs where there are
concentrations of women, particularly women of color as professionals,
making it difficult to get student loans,6 minutes, 25 seconds
restricting now with the with the Supreme Court's help,6 minutes, 28 seconds
who can go to college and what colleges they can go to.6 minutes, 31 seconds
And then how many hundreds of thousands of African-American women lost their jobs? So there's also an economic, you know,6 minutes, 39 seconds
an economic attack on African-Americans here. So when you put those two things together,6 minutes, 45 seconds
to
me it says you're trying to through centralize, you're trying to
centralize through our entire federal bureaucracy and have a trickle
down to the states,6 minutes, 54 seconds
the restriction of black civic engagement and economic empowerment. That to me rings very true to, you know,7 minutes, 3 seconds
an American version of apartheid that is not easily unshakable in the near term.7 minutes, 9 seconds
So
the question is, do the Democrats have any legal recourse here with
all of this redistricting that's taking place to try to level7 minutes, 17 seconds
the
playing field or is it just going to come down simply at the ballot box
that they're going to have their best and final chance at at regaining
power?7 minutes, 27 seconds
I don't think they have much legal recourse.7 minutes, 29 seconds
They
certainly don't have legal recourse in Virginia. The. This is an
independent and adequate state ground, which means that the U .S.7 minutes, 35 seconds
Supreme Court doesn't really have jurisdiction to overturn what happened.7 minutes, 38 seconds
There are some areas Florida is facing a challenge to its redistricting effort, which is effectively in place,7 minutes, 47 seconds
but subject to a challenge that is still ongoing.7 minutes, 49 seconds
But those are long shots in terms of legal challenges.7 minutes, 53 seconds
Basically what has happened and I am less optimistic than many people. I don't know.7 minutes, 59 seconds
I think we could end up with 60 % of the vote producing 40 % of the seats.8 minutes, 3 seconds
This is very, very stark. Antonio says I bring it down.8 minutes, 8 seconds
But IT IS NOT JUST GRIM, IT IS REALLY, REALLY, REALLY GRIM.8 minutes, 16 seconds
AND THE ONLY WAY THAT I SEE FORWARD IS TO FIGHT THE GERRYMANDERING WITH GERRYMANDERING WHICH WE WE BOTH HATE, I MEAN,8 minutes, 23 seconds
IT'S
BAD FOR DEMOCRACY, BUT IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR DEMOCRACY IN THE SHORT
RUN AND THEN PERHAPS 2030 WHICH FEELS LIKE COLD COMFORT,8 minutes, 31 seconds
MAYBE 2040,8 minutes, 32 seconds
YOU CAN GET GET A FEDERAL BAN ON PARTISAN REDISTRICTING?8 minutes, 37 seconds
BECAUSE LET'S BE CLEAR, A BIG PART OF THE REASON THAT WE ARE IN THIS APARTHIDE, THE RESEGREGATION IS THE U .S. SUPREME COURT.8 minutes, 44 seconds
1980s JOHN ROBERTS IN THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION dreamed of where 2026 John Roberts has gotten America.8 minutes, 51 seconds
And let me just say this, because you did talk about democracy and you asked that question.8 minutes, 55 seconds
It's important to remember that they put all of this in paper. They put all of this in writing.9 minutes
And
there were a lot of people that said it can't really happen. He's not
going to go that far. Of course he will, because it's not just him.9 minutes, 7 seconds
It's
everything and everyone around him that wants to bring make America
great it again. And we kept saying this, this can happen.9 minutes, 16 seconds
It's not that, it's not that difficult. But folks felt, and I always say this, people got complacent.9 minutes, 23 seconds
People got complacent.9 minutes, 25 seconds
But now we're in a situation where things do look very, very grim.9 minutes, 30 seconds
If you're a Democrat or anybody that actually cares about this stuff.9 minutes, 33 seconds
And that's the concern. And I tell people this all the time. The midterms will not save us.9 minutes, 39 seconds
So as much as we would talk about the importance of, you know what?9 minutes, 42 seconds
It's
actually having a version of Project 2025 that outlines what needs to
happen going forward. What do we need to put in place?9 minutes, 50 seconds
What guardrails need to go back up?9 minutes, 52 seconds
But isn't part of the problem that this hasn't been war game far enough out. And for worst case scenario,9 minutes, 59 seconds
with the Republicans coming in with a super aggressive posture is the position now that Democrats need to take,10 minutes, 6 seconds
that
they are looking at every single majority they have where they can get
anything possibly by and looking at the law and then pursuing it as
aggressively as possible.10 minutes, 16 seconds
Much like when they talk about packing the court,10 minutes, 18 seconds
that's TO BE INVOLVED AND SCARES REPUBLICANS TO DEATH. YEAH.10 minutes, 22 seconds
AND
YOU STILL HAVE KIND OF I THINK THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT THE LANGUAGE AND
LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA WHEN, LIKE YOU SAID,10 minutes, 29 seconds
I THINK JAMES'S POINT HE IS ADDRESSING REALITY.10 minutes, 31 seconds
THE LAW WAS AGAINST THEY WANTED TO SHOW THE ENERGY AND SEE WHAT'S THERE AND WHO IS THERE TO FIGHT.10 minutes, 43 seconds
EVERY TYPE OF CHILDREN WASN'T GOING TO GO TO THE FINISH LINE.10 minutes, 45 seconds
EVERY
TYPE OF POLITICAL AND SOCIO-POLITICAL MOBILIZATION IN THIS COUNTRY HAS
BEEN BUILT OFF OF ABOLITIONIST MOVEMENT AND THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT.10 minutes, 55 seconds
NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.10 minutes, 56 seconds
WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW, AND I GUESS THE POTENTIAL PATH FORWARD, IS TO HAVE A MULTIFACETED PLAN. THERE'S A LEGAL STRATEGY, RIGHT?11 minutes, 4 seconds
THERE'S THE MOBILIZATION. YOU SEE THAT WITH THE NO KINGS RALLIES. YOU'VE SEEN THAT WITH ALL OF THE, YOU KNOW,11 minutes, 10 seconds
ALL OF THE democratic overperformance in some of these races up until now. And so, yeah, you got to keep that going,11 minutes, 17 seconds
but
it's got to keep, you got to keep it going. There's just, there really
is, I don't I WANT TO SAY TIME IS RUNNING OUT, BUT IT KIND OF IS.11 minutes, 25 seconds
OR
IS IT GOING TO TAKE AN OBAMA-LIKE FIGURE TO ACTUALLY DRIVE TURNOUT IN A
WAY TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A WAY THAT SIMPLY IS NOT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
OVERWHELMING, OVERWHELMING.11 minutes, 33 seconds
YES, WHERE YOU HAVE THE KIND OF INCREDIBLE TURNOUT FROM LOW-INTENSITY VOTERS, LOW-INFORMATION VOTERS, AND THEY FINALLY...11 minutes, 40 seconds
I THINK IT TAKES MORE THAN AN OBAMA-LIKE FIGURE. LIKE, IF WE ARE, AS MANY HISTORIANS BELIEVE,11 minutes, 45 seconds
AND
I GUESS I WOULD LIKE FOR THE TWO OF YOU TO WAIT ON THIS, IF WE ARE IN A
POST WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS, THE MOST RECONSTRUCTION REACTIONARY
PERIOD.11 minutes, 51 seconds
I MEAN, IT TOOK US DECADES AND THERE WERE MANY PEOPLE WHO LITERALLY PUT THEIR LIVES ON THE LINE TO GET US OUT OF THAT11 minutes, 59 seconds
PERIOD AND TO BRING US TO THE AMERICA THAT WE WERE BORN INTO AND THOUGHT WE WERE GOING TO ENJOY, TO SURVIVE THAT.12 minutes, 8 seconds
I
DON'T KNOW, THAT IS a daunting thing to face as someone who grew up
hearing the stories of what it was like for my grandparents to live
through that.12 minutes, 15 seconds
It's genuinely shocking to sit with it.12 minutes, 20 seconds
That's what I'm going to have to live through now. Basil, James, take with us.
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